Champions League 2015-16 Odds Preview
By Ty Duffy
The Champions League Group Stage begins today. We broke down the field of plausible winners using futures odds. TLDR version: bet the chalk.
FAVORITES
The usual suspects. These teams have the talent and experience to win it. They have a strong track record of recent success.
Barcelona [11-4] The Blaugranes lifted the trophy last year, their fourth since 2006. They have reached at least the semifinal 7 of the last 8 years. Barcelona were hampered in the summer, under a transfer interdict. They still have this guy, this guy, and this guy. No club has repeated in the modern Champions League. The last European Cup repeat champion was A.C. Milan in 1990. We’re still confused by the Canadian tuxedos.
Bayern Munich [4-1] Best coach in the world Pep Guardiola joined the reigning Champions League winners in 2013. It hasn’t quite gone as planned. Two league titles, but two disappointing semifinal exits in Europe. Bayern Munich added Juventus star Arturo Vidal and exciting Brazilian Douglas Costa. Arjen Robben’s health is still in flux.
Real Madrid [5-1] Quiet transfer window by Madridista standards. Only two $35m-plus players added to the mix. They did not complete the David De Gea deal. Real Madrid have the talent to win every year. They have reached at least the semifinals the last five years. Half-empty stat: have reached the final once since 2002. London cigarette smokers prefer Ronaldo.
SECOND-TIER FAVORITES
These teams have the talent and experience on paper. But have never put it together or give reason for pause.
Chelsea [9-1] The Blues are off to a horrific EPL star. But, there’s ample precedent for league disappointments doing well in Europe. When Chelsea won the tournament in 2012, they finished 6th. An easy group should prove no impediment.
Manchester City [14-1] Off to a hot start. Can compare checkbooks with anyone. Manchester City’s league effort has not translated to Europe. The club have made four-straight appearances, but have not reached a quarterfinal. Things could get hairy again this time around, in a group with no cupcakes.
Manchester United [14-1] United reached the 2011 Final. They have gotten to the quarterfinals once since. They were not in the tournament last year. The Red Devils have bought wildly in a seller’s market – a record $55m for an 18-year-old. They have four former winners in the squad. But, it’s hard to see them going too far without a pure, top-class goal scorer.
PSG [16-1] Coming off three-straight league titles and three-straight quarterfinal exits. Will Zlatan finally come through in a big spot? David Luiz can win you a round, or lose one. Stuck in the same group as Real Madrid. Second-place could set them up with a tough Round of 16 matchup.
SLEEPERS OR NOT
These teams are flawed. They’re not going to win. But, it’s not inconceivable they could linger and make the later rounds interesting.
Arsenal [18-1] Coming off five-straight Round of 16 eliminations. Arsenal are a solid bet to make it six, finishing second in the same group as Bayern Munich. Would like them much better with an elite striker and a more capable defensive midfielder. Good enough is not good enough.
Atletico Madrid [18-1] Lost to Real Madrid in the quarterfinals last year. Lost in the finals the year before. Like what Diego Simeone is doing there. But, it’s hard to sustain a challenge year-in, year-out selling your best players, against the clubs buying them. With any easy group, they are a good bet for the quarterfinals.
Juventus [28-1] Four-straight Scudetti. Reached least season’s final. Juve spent to supplement the squad. They held onto Paul Pogba for another season. They have a strong defense. They also lost two thirds of their midfield with Arturo Vidal and Andrea Pirlo departing. Top scorer Carlos Tevez also left, returning home to Argentina.
EXTREME LONGSHOTS
These teams are decent, could reach the knockout rounds, and have a definite ceiling.
Valencia [50-1] Spent last season in the Europa League. Haven’t reached a quarterfinal since 2007. Valencia make a $98m net transfer spend over the summer. They took four points from both Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in the league last year. Could make a run with an easy group.
Sevilla [66-1] Spain got a fifth spot based on recent coefficient success. Sevilla qualified. They have recent cup success, coming off back-to-back Europa League triumphs. But, have not played in Champions League since 2010. Sevilla took just three points from a possible 24 against the top four in Spain last year.
Wolfsburg [66-1] Reached group stage of Champions League once in 2009/10. Reached Europa League quarterfinals last season. Sold Kevin De Bruyne to Manchester City for $78m, arguably the best player in Germany last season.
Roma [80-1] Coming off back-to-back second place Serie A finishes. Have not reached a Champions League quarterfinal since 2008. Totti is ageless. Roma signed some interesting players on loan – Wojciech Szczesny and Edin Dzeko. Still turned a $35m profit in the transfer window.
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