On College Football: What The Bleep Happened To Oregon?

Utah torched Oregon 62-20 in Eugene. The only way Kyle Whittingham could have rubbed it in further was leaving a pyramid of skulls and smoldering neon uniforms outside Autzen Stadium. Is stolid Utah a legit playoff contender? Or, are the Ducks that putrid?

Points mean less in the Pac 12. The box score defeat was not as jarring as the score. Still, Oregon lost by 42 points at home, as a double-digit favorite to Utah. How bad was that loss? Here’s some context. It’s 17 points worse than Rich Rodriguez’ worst home defeat with Michigan. It’s 11 points worse than Derek Dooley’s worst home defeat with Tennessee.

Picture the reaction if Alabama lost by 42 points to Mississippi State. Oregon has been about as dominant as the Crimson Tide since about 2008. This loss is on that magnitude.

It is September. This is the point where one draws sweeping conclusions from a limited sample and taps out a column that looks regrettable come November. Oregon, doubtless, is not as bad as they looked Saturday night. But, it’s hard to see such an egregious loss as anything but a bellwether.

Oregon is not as good as expected. We’ve seen little evidence they are good at all. Yes, they hung with Michigan State on the road. But, that’s circular. The Spartans’ prime argument for good-dom in 2015 is beating Oregon.

The Ducks have opted for continuity at every turn. Offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich replaced Chip Kelly. Wide receivers coach Scott Frost replaced Mark Helfrich. Don Pellum, a position coach at Oregon since 1993, replaced retired defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti.

Continuity was intended to keep Oregon’s well-oiled system intact. Talent input, on paper, has been better under Helfrich than it was under Kelly. The stark regression after Marcus Mariota leaving should worry. If that system is not down, its constituent parts are teetering.

Three years of Mariota was three years space to develop a viable replacement. Oregon had to thrust in Vernon Adams after a couple weeks on campus. The best internal option Jeff Lockie against a good defense: 10/20, 139 yards, one touchdown, two INTs.

The Ducks’ defense has been a fiasco. They are 103rd in yards/play conceded, after playing one Pac 12 team. Only one team in FBS, Miami of Ohio, has allowed more red zone trips than Oregon (21). The Ducks rank 124th in opponent red zone TD percentage (81 percent). Oregon is 111th in SOS adjusted defense. Only Texas Tech and Kansas have been worse in the Power 5.

It’s premature to break down a Utah vs. Iowa playoff matchup. That means it’s too soon to write off Oregon, at least for the Pac 12 title, and far too soon to bring up Larry Coker. Discussing “eras” and “dynasties” leads to inevitable overreaction and foolishness.

What we can say is Oregon’s 42-point loss was grave and template-altering. The wheels are off at present. It’s not clear they were on to start the season.

BUTCH JONES, YOU CLOD

Tennessee has lost twice. Both losses can be attributed to mathematical errors on the Volunteers’ sideline.

Against Oklahoma, Tennessee kicked a field goal on 4th and 1 in the first quarter. Tennessee tied and lost in overtime. The fail scenario there: Tennessee misses, hands Oklahoma the ball back on its own one, probably gets the ball back near field goal range. The probability numbers suggest you always go for it in that situation.

Last weekend’s miscue requires less explanation. Tennessee went up 12 in the fourth quarter. Instead of going for two, Butch Jones opted to kick an extra point to go up 13. Florida scored two touchdowns (14 points) and won 28-27. Tennessee’s chart, if it existed, would say to go for two every time.

Tennessee has issues on both sides of the ball. Better plays in key moments may have salvaged those wins. But, placing your team in worse situations out of sheer blockheadedness is inexcusable.

SWIPE RIGHT

Battle Rhythm: Michigan beat BYU 31-0. The Wolverines defense allowed 1.8 yards/att, allowed 2.3 yards/rush, and stopped 11/15 3rd down attempts against a real opponent. Michigan has conceded 7 points over its past 11 quarters. The win was not flashy. There were neither flukes nor turnovers. It was a straight ass-kicking. Michigan football. Brady Hoke’s rhetoric realized. Jim Harbaugh thinks the team has found its battle rhythm.

Josh Doctson: TCU’s senior wideout caught 18 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns against in a 55-52 win over Texas Tech. One could credit him with an assist on the final touchdown. This Horned Frogs team will go as far as its offense takes them, or, in truth, as far as Doctson does.

Kentucky: The Wildcats beat Missouri 21-13, on a solid passing day from Patrick Towles. That was Kentucky’s second SEC win, as many as they had from 2012-14 combined. The Wildcats are 3-1. Beating Eastern Kentucky, Charlotte and Vanderbilt would get them to a bowl game for the first time since 2010. There are winnable games beyond.

SWIPE LEFT

Auburn: The Tigers started a new quarterback. They were held without a touchdown, in a 17-9 loss to Mississippi State. Auburn’s three remaining SEC home games are Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama. Road trips to Kentucky, to Arkansas and to Texas A&M are losable. After two thirds of the media had Auburn in the playoff preseason, the Tigers may not reach a bowl game without dramatic improvement.

Mike London’s Future: Our coach in most need of win this week lost 56-14 at home to Boise State. Virginia turned the ball over five times. Two led to direct touchdowns. When it came to coaching adjustment time, the Cavaliers were shut down 27-0 in the 2nd half. Virginia has been rounding the corner for six seasons. Mike London has a 17-41 record against FBS opponents.

The S.S. Edsall: Maryland lost 45-6 at West Virginia. The Terps committed an incredible six turnovers, five on consecutive possessions. This is year five of the Randy Edsall era. The Terps are 2-2 (1-2 vs. FBS). Their next six conference games are Michigan, (at) OSU, Penn State, (at) Iowa, Wisconsin, (at) MSU. Circumstances are bound to get ugly. It would cost an extra $2.1m to fire Edsall early, only a smidge more than the school paid to oust Ralph Friedgen, after an 8-4 season the Terps still have not equaled.

FLEXIBLE LOWER BODY OF THE WEEK

" The scene in the #okstate locker room after the Cowboys’ win at Texas. Team chanting GUNDY GUNDY GUNDY Had to do it. pic.twitter.com/XYIO9wWBZZ — Cowboy Football (@CowboyFB) September 27, 2015 "

We’re taking Mike Gundy in a college football coach limbo-off.

[USAT]