Netherlands In Serious Danger of Not Qualifying For Euro 2016
By Ty Duffy
UEFA expanded Euro 2016 to 24 teams. The shift made qualifying easier – 24 of 54 members will make it. That context makes the following fact more surprising. The Netherlands, third-place finishers in the 2014 World Cup, are in danger of not qualifying.
The Dutch are in 4th place in qualifying Group A with 10 points from eight matches. Iceland (who took all six points from the Dutch) and the Czech Republic have clinched the two automatic places. Turkey, in third-place, leads the Netherlands by two points entering the final two matches. Even if the Dutch beat out the Turks, they still face a home-and-away playoff with one of the other third place finishers to get in.
For some perspective, the Oranje had a 26-1-1 record through their last three qualifying campaigns. This would be the first time the Dutch have missed the Euros since 1984. That tournament had an eight-team field. The Netherlands lost their qualifying group to Spain on goals scored after tying on points and goal difference.
Coaching turnover has been an issue. Louis van Gaal left the Netherlands job for Manchester United after the 2014 World Cup. He was replaced by “the legendary” Guus Hiddink. Hiddink has a very good tournament track record. He reached the semifinals at the 1998 World Cup (Netherlands), 2002 World Cup (South Korea) and Euro 2008 (Russia). He also took Australia to the knockout rounds at the 2006 World Cup.
However, Hiddink’s more recent international track record has been less impressive. He left the Russia job, after failing to qualify them for the 2010 World Cup. He left Turkey, after failing to qualify them for Euro 2012. Hiddink resigned in June after the disappointing qualifying run and not so vital friendly losses to Italy, Mexico and the United States.
Danny Blind, a national team assistant since 2012, replaced Hiddink. This is his first head coaching job since he left a two-year stint at Ajax in 2006. His first two matches in September: crushing losses at home to Iceland (1-0) and away to Turkey (3-0).
Player turnover, or the lack of it, may be the graver problem. The Netherlands are still reliant on their brilliant trio. Arjen Robben is 31 and has been battling injuries. Robin van Persie is 32. He moved from Manchester United to Turkish club Fenerbahce. He has struggled to get starts there. Wesley Sneijder is 31 and also playing in Turkey for Galatasaray.
Those three have been filling cracks for years. Beyond, the squad looks bleak. Manchester United’s Memphis, 21, is a budding star on the wing. His club teammate (and the coach’s son) Daley Blind is a solid, versatile defender. That’s about it considering top level players. We’re a long way from the 1998 World Cup squad with Bergkamp, Seedorf, Kluivert, Overmars etc.
Can the Netherlands salvage things? It’s conceivable. The Dutch have two winnable games. They play the Czech Republic at home and Kazakhstan away. The Turks play the Czechs (away) and Iceland (home). Those are the top two teams in the group, though both have already qualified and have no reason to exert themselves. Seeding is done by UEFA coefficient, not group finish.
Turkey has not been a juggernaut. Beating the Dutch in September was their sole win in the qualifying campaign not against Latvia. The Dutch should be able to make up that two-point deficit on paper. Though, on paper, they should have qualified from this group without issue.
Few would anticipate the Dutch providing a thrilling display of “Total Football” in France. Though, a major tournament without Dutch fans would be a shame.