On College Football: Utah vs. Cal, Michigan vs. Northwestern, The Civil Conflict

Week 5 was about exposure. Top 10 denizens Ole Miss, Notre Dame, UCLA and Georgia fell. Ohio State, Michigan State, LSU, and Florida State looked vulnerable. Results left us confused.

It’s hard seeing similar depression and disarray this weekend. Our poll consensus top four teams have light weeks. Ohio State hosts piteous Maryland. Michigan State is a two-touchdown favorite at moribond Rutgers. Baylor faces a not-so-stiff road test at Kansas. TCU meets frisky but banged up Kansas State.

LSU was a double-digit favorite at South Carolina. That game has been moved to Tiger Stadium. Maybe Clemson “Clemsons” against Georgia Tech. We suspect this weekend may be more about inclusion than exclusion. A couple teams that weren’t talking season darlings can prove their mettle as legit playoff contenders.

GameDay is in raucous Salt Lake City as undefeated No. 5 Utah hosts undefeated No. 23 Cal. The Utes had a big bye week last weekend. Perception of their Oregon demolition buoyed them, as others faulted. Edging a win against Michigan on a pick six looks better by the week.

Utah may be the legit No. 1 team, considering résumés, right now. Does any team have a better top two wins? But it’s still unclear whether Utah is a great team or just another good one in a deep, dangerous Pac 12. We receive more data this week. If Utah is unscathed after Cal, Arizona State and at USC on the 24th, that will be interesting.

No. 13 Northwestern heads to No. 18 Michigan as an eight-point underdog. No one saw the Wildcats coming preseason. But, they upset Stanford at home. They fended off Duke on the road. They are a serious 5-0 heading to Ann Arbor. The Wolverines, 4-1, roll in off back-to-back shutouts of BYU and Maryland. Some are touting them as the Big Ten’s best team.

Four of the last five between these teams have been decided by one score. That stretch has produced some riveting back-and-forth play and late game heroics. It also offered last year’s unsightly M00N game. With perhaps the nation’s two best defenses colliding, this contest may resemble the latter.

Michigan is Michigan. Northwestern has a disproportionate media presence. This one is for all the unreasonable hype entering Week 7.

RIVALRY WEEK

The game America has been quivering for has arrived. It’s Civil Conflict week. UConn announced the rivalry and had a trophy made, conveniently leaving out their loss in 2013. They did so without consulting UCF, who had no interest in a rivalry. Bob Diaco refused to be civil about the snub. These teams are a combined 1-7 against FBS opponents in 2015. Someone must emerge victorious.

COACH WHO MOST NEEDS A WIN

Don’t need to stray far from the narrative, here. It’s Butch Jones. The Vols have lost three one-score games this year against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas. Judgement errors by Jones played a direct role in the first two. The Vols are at Bama the following week, then have another road test at Kentucky.

Beating Georgia gets Butch that elusive big win, reshapes the story and offers some breathing room. Losing to Georgia drops Tennessee, in all likelihood, to 2-5 after Alabama. At that point, the Vols are scrambling to reach a bowl game and the head coach’s job.

Picks ATS

We went 4-1 ATS last week, moving to 19-6 ATS on the season. We are 17-3 the past four weeks. The correction will come. Don’t blame us when it does. 

Michigan (-7.5) vs. Northwestern: Both these teams have great defenses. Michigan has an average offense. Northwestern’s offense is garbage. The Wildcats can’t pass. Much of their scoring against good teams has come from kick returns and defensive touchdowns. Michigan’s staff has been adept at making adjustments and finding ways to score. They win and cover.

Tennessee (+3) vs. Georgia: Excise the narrative for a second. The only things Tennessee has been bad at this season: math, stopping key 4th down conversions. The Dawgs are Miami-bad converting 3rd downs. Tennessee is desperate for a win. A Mark Richt-coached team heading to a tough road environment reeling from a bad loss.

Army (+12) vs. Duke: Army has been competitive. They are 4-1 ATS this season. The Blue Devils have played three-straight physical games. Duke’s offense has sustained one touchdown drive longer than 50 yards in its last three games. The Blue Devils have a solid pass efficiency defense. That’s irrelevant against Army. Twelve is too many points to take Duke on the road.

California (+7.5) at Utah: Utah is overvalued. The Utes have profited from unorthodox scoring. Five touchdowns this season have come on special teams or defense. Two more have come on fields of 25 yards or less. They have a deceptively average pass defense that doesn’t get much pressure going against, perhaps, the nation’s best quarterback. Roll Bear Raid.

Ohio State (-33) vs. Maryland: Maryland is bad, at every aspect of playing football except special teams returns. Ohio State has great kick coverage. Ohio State should generate turnovers and reel off big plays. Their situational offense has to get better at some stage. The Buckeyes will be looking to execute and crush a Maryland team heading on the road after two brutal losses.