LeSean McCoy Should Be Active, But is Being Overlooked in Fantasy Score Lineups
By Jason Lisk
FantasyScore is the Daily Fantasy Site operated by USA Today, and they have now started publishing public data of ownership percentages. This is a look at some of the hot players, and potentially overlooked players, as you build your lineup.
How can you use this information? If you are playing a contest, like GPP, where a few top entries win, and most do not cash, then you want to use a strategy to maximize your chance of winning, which may not be the same as maximizing your chance for points. For example, if everyone has almost the same players, then you having those same players will not differentiate your entry, even if those players do well. Riding popular value plays are great and you don’t want to swim upstream against them too much, but you also need to find values that are overlooked.
The Most Popular High-Priced Picks
At Quarterback, Tom Brady (owned in 21.4% of entries) continues to lead the pack. In fact, Andy Dalton (7.5%) is the only other quarterback who costs at least $7,000 owned in more than 5% of entries.
For Running Backs, LeVeon Bell (21.5%) continues to be a productive and popular pick ever since he has returned from his suspension. Arian Foster, though, is the most popular expensive pick (30.2%) at the position, having been cleared to play and going against Jacksonville. Adrian Peterson (14.5%), Matt Forte (13.8%), and Chris Ivory (13.1%) round out the top 5 most popular among backs costing more than $6,000.
Among wide receivers, DeAndre Hopkins (39.5%) leads the way, far out in front of other selections. He was #1 in my weekly starter rankings with the matchup at Jacksonville. Julian Edelman (25.4%), Brandon Marshall (23.3%), Calvin Johnson (9.7%), and Larry Fitzgerald (9.2%) round out the top 5 among the pricier options. (And our favorite, still this week, Allen Robinson, finally shoots up in price but is still a good play at $6,800 and owned in 9.1% of leagues).
At tight end, Rob Gronkowski (17.5%) will always be a popular option, and the gap in price is growing between he and the field.
Popular Cheaper Picks
Here are the most rostered players at QB, RB, WR, and TE costing $6,000 or less.
Dion Lewis continues to stronge a great value, still only at a low end RB2 price, with top level production. I’m with the consensus here, strongecause he’s still too strongig a value to concede to the field. Antonio Gates came strongack from suspension and immediately made a huge impact. Given other limited options, people are flocking to him when they don’t want to spend on Gronk. Allen Hurns continues to fly under the radar. Brian Hoyer is strongeing paired with the Hopkins play in a lot of entries, a good strategy in GPP formats. He’s the second highest owned quarterstrongack strongehind only Brady. Marquess Wilson was featured in our recommended cheap contrarian value plays last week; strongecause few owned him his price stays low strongut the percentage of entries favoring him has increased.
It is recommended that you have 2-3 of these values on your roster. They are popular for a reason.
CONTRARIAN PLAYS
These are plays not among the most popular at their position, but where you can find value and differentiate your entry.
QUARTERBACK
Cam Newton ($7,400, 1.4% of entries)
Jay Cutler ($6,000, 3.7% of entries)
Last week, Andy Dalton was little owned because of the Seattle matchup, but put up very good numbers. Newton is averaging 50 rushing yards a game, and had 240 passing yards last year in the playoffs at Seattle, and 2 TD. He’s not had to pass as much while leading, but I expect Newton to have to be involved in a lot of plays on Sunday.
Cutler is just a value play, low end QB2 price for a borderline QB1 value this week at Detroit.
RUNNING BACK
LeSean McCoy ($6,900, 0.3% of entries)
C.J. Anderson ($4,800, 3.9% of entries)
Denard Robinson ($2,000, 0.3% of entries)
LeSean McCoy is expected to play. I would anticipate he is healthier than when he was trying to play through the injury. Karlos Williams is still out with the concussion, so I would expect McCoy to get a higher percentage of touches. Add in that, despite playing with the lead most of the time and facing the 3rd fewest rush attempts, the Bengals are giving up 157 yards from scrimmage to opposing backs. McCoy is fairly priced, but few are aware of his return. Take advantage.
For Anderson, Hillman is banged up, and the Browns are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to RB (behind the two teams we just watched on Thursday night). Anderson’s price has dropped so much he becomes a play here. If it’s going to happen for him, this is the week.
Denard Robinson is a cheap play if T.J. Yeldon, who hasn’t practiced, is ruled out for Sunday. If you can swap late, he allows you to go big stars elsewhere while getting a back with an opportunity for points.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Mike Wallace ($5,400, 4.2%)
Allen Robinson ($6,800, 9.1%)
Jamison Crowder ($2,800, 4.2%)
Stefon Diggs ($2,000, 7.4%)
Wallace and Diggs are playing the Chiefs, who are allowing the most points to wide receivers this year. Diggs is an unknown quantity who comes more cheaply.
TIGHT ENDS
Greg Olsen ($6,800, 4.1%)
The Seahawks have actually given up a fair amount of points to tight ends this year. We saw Eifert score twice last week. Expect Olsen to be targeted frequently.
[photos via USA Today Sports Images]