The Undefeated Denver Broncos' Offensive Start Should Be Cause for Concern

Among the topics we covered in our NFL Weekly Preview podcast was Denver’s offensive start while getting off to a 5-0 start, and how rare it is. (You can see all of our picks here if you don’t want to listen to the podcast). This post will go deeper into that discussion.

Denver is only the 8th team since 1978 to score 10 or fewer offensive touchdowns while starting 5-0. (In the recording, I incorrectly identified nine). They are tied for the second fewest offensive TD’s for a 5-0 team, only exceeding the 1978 Los Angeles Rams.

Here are those teams, how many offensive touchdowns they scored, and the ultimate result for that season.

Those other seven teams went a combined 36-41 for the rest of the season. More failed to reach the playoffs after a 5-0 start than reached the Super Bowl. They went 27-49-1 against the spread (35.7%), and none of the seven had a winning against the spread record, generally underperforming the expectations set by the start.

Denver is off to a great defensive start. They have given up more points than the other teams on that list (average 57, Denver 79). Denver has scored slightly more than those other teams (113 vs 106 on average), and has the worst point differential after 5 games for the group.

A few weeks ago, I referenced Manning compared to the end of Marino’s career. In 1998, the Dolphins finally had a great defense with Jimmy Johnson, led by Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor, and Tim Bowens, finishing first in points allowed. Marino’s offense, though, was at the same time finally declining. Any hope that the Broncos aren’t part of the larger trends (teams that rely on defense/special teams in having success early don’t sustain as well as offenses) is based on the belief that Peyton Manning can turn it around. The offensive line has struggled, the team has a new head coach and offensive coordinator. It’s truly bizarre to see Peyton Manning in such historical company. But history says, regardless of how the defense has played so far, the offense better get it going to become a real Super Bowl contender.
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[photo via USA Today Sports Images]