The Seattle Seahawks are Still Making the Playoffs

Seattle is 2-4. With key defensive players mis-communicating on key late plays and the team blowing several leads, things are at a crossroads for a team that has appeared in the last two Super Bowls.

They are within a forced fumble at the goal line and a batted ball of being 1-5. That one easy win was against a team with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback. Russell Wilson has been sacked 26 times in the first six games. The team has surrendered fourth quarter leads in all four losses, and been outscored 61-27 in the fourth quarter on the year.

In the fourth quarter, opponents are 13 of 14 passing on third down, with no sacks, and 11.2 yards per attempt. Overall, the Seahawks defense is allowing the opponent to complete 82.5% of all passes in the fourth quarter and overtime, for 10.0 yards per attempt, and an opponent passer rating of 129.6. Jimmy Clausen (2 for 3 for 15 yards) was the only one not to average at least 9 yards per pass in the fourth quarter. So basically, when they’ve played a competent NFL starter, they have been torched.

Meanwhile, when Seattle has tried to pass in the fourth quarter, Russell Wilson has been sacked on 5 of the 20 pass attempts (add in his 3 scrambles, and he’s still been sacked on a whopping 21%– 5 of 23). They have one offensive touchdown in the fourth quarter or overtime all year–week 1 against the Rams.

This season is on the brink heading into Thursday night’s game at San Francisco. Teams that have started at 2-4 have only made the postseason 8.6% (14 of 163) of the time since 1990. The last was the 2011 Denver Broncos with Tim Tebow, winning a division at 8-8 with a ton of close wins. I don’t think Seattle can count on getting in at 8-8. So, at minimum, they have to get to at least 9 wins, and have used up 4 of their losses.

Yet, I still think they will make the postseason. I know that’s not the most outlandish position, but it’s also not a safe one after the latest loss. The Football Outsiders Playoff Odds report had Seattle at 47% to make the postseason before the loss (this week’s will be out tomorrow). This team could certainly mentally go either way, but it does have veterans who have been part of great successes and should have the ability to bounce back.

Part of why I think Seattle is still in good shape is the remaining outlook in the NFC.

Let’s go ahead and say that Green Bay (6-0), Carolina (6-0), and Atlanta (5-1) are highly likely to make the playoffs, two as division winners and the other out of the NFC South as one of the wildcards. The NFC East currently has both the Eagles and Giants at 3-3 and Dallas at 2-3 following this week’s bye. The odds of multiple of those teams getting to 10 wins seems slim. Dallas still has to survive without Romo, and if one of them goes on a surge, it’s likely at the expense of the others.

That leaves Seattle’s competition within the NFC West for the division and/or a wildcard slot, plus the 3-2 Minnesota Vikings, who currently sit in the 6th position. Seattle can either, then, catch the Cardinals (with two head-to-head games remaining) or finish 2nd and beat out the 2nd place team from the North, East, and 3rd place team from the South.

Seattle needs to win the next two if they want a hope of being in the postseason. San Francisco has played better the last two weeks, but a playoff team goes and wins that game. Then, Dallas on the road, but with Matt Cassel at quarterback has to be a win. Not only for its own sake, but if it were to come down to a common games tiebreaker, it could be big (Philly and the Giants have already lost once to Dallas).

Go ahead and circle December 6th on the calendar. Minnesota hosts Seattle on that day. The Vikings still have to play at Atlanta, at Arizona, and against the Packers twice in addition to that game. That outcome could be decisive when it comes to a potential playoff spot. Leading up to that game, Seattle should be favored in every game, though by just a few points in several.

For all the bad outcomes, this is still a talented team. Marshawn Lynch has been hurt and is averaging 3.3 yards a carry. Russell Wilson is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt when he gets a pass off. Even with the astronomical sack numbers, the team is around league average in pass efficiency. The team has had some key absences (first Kam Chancellor’s holdout, Bobby Wagner missing last game) that have impacted them. And it’s still a team that has been one of the best in football for three years.

The margin of error is smaller. I’ll still take them to come through and catch the teams slightly in front of them for a wildcard spot. Now, returning to the Super Bowl, that’s a different story.

[photos via USA Today Sports Images]