Daily Fantasy Contrarian Picks, Week 7: Drew Brees is the Forgotten Man Among Top QBs With Great Matchups
By Jason Lisk
FantasyScore is the Daily Fantasy Site operated by USA Today, and they have now started publishing public data of ownership percentages. This is a look at some of the hot players, and potentially overlooked players, as you build your lineup.
How can you use this information? If you are playing a contest, like GPP, where a few top entries win, and most do not cash, then you want to use a strategy to maximize your chance of winning, which may not be the same as maximizing your chance for points. For example, if everyone has almost the same players, then you having those same players will not differentiate your entry, even if those players do well. Riding popular value plays are great and you don’t want to swim upstream against them too much, but you also need to find values that are overlooked.
The Most Popular High-Priced Picks
Here are the 12 most popular picks among players valued at $6,500 or more.
Gurley and Freeman make sense up top, as the two best plays this week. (they are 1-2 in my weekly starter rankings). I’m surprised the gap isn’t larger in favor of Gurley, though, given the relative price difference with Gurley going against the Browns rush defense.
Hopkins continues to be a popular play at wide receiver, while the Cardinals passing game has high expectations against the struggling Ravens. There is no clear favorite at QB this week; Palmer, Rivers, and Luck all have really good matchups and going with one of those three seems like a good and understandable strategy.
Gates is a popular tight end pick, but keep in mind he has not practiced this week and is questionable for Sunday.
The Most Popular Cheap Picks
Here are the most popular cheaper selections among QB, RB, WR, and TE.
Diggs has been the most targeted receiver in Minnesota, but keep in mind that Norv Turner just threw some water on the Diggs hype at the end of this week. He’s cheap and popular and might be a contrarian avoid just for diversity.
I love the John Brown pick if he plays, he’s been basically matching Fitzgerald in recent weeks for a cheaper price and has a great matchup. However, he didn’t practice today. If he is out and you can late substitute, well, that leaves another option in Arizona.
At running back, Latavius Murray has a really good matchup against the Chargers, Gore gets the Saints, and people are taking a flyer on all the Christine Michael chatter.
At quarterback, Brian Hoyer is the only cheap option drawing significant attention.
The Contrarian Picks
These picks aren’t as popular, but if you want to differentiate your entry, you need to take some chances on a few of these guys mixed with the great matchup/popular value plays.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees ($8,200, 1.3% owned) – I get why Palmer, Rivers, and Luck are considered slightly better values, but Brees is still a top 6 option with a pretty dang good matchup in Indianapolis, and only 1% of all entries are using him.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,200, 4.6% owned) – for a mid-priced option this week, Tannehill provides the best combination of value and low ownership with a matchup against the Texans.
Running Backs
Mark Ingram ($7,300, 3.1% owned) – potential shootout in Indy and very few have the goal line back and top back for the Saints.
Rashad Jennings ($3,800, 3.9% owned) – Jennings has a pretty good matchup at home against the Cowboys and is a decent cheap risk. Consider that Christine Michael, who has a far more uncertain role, is basically the same price and three times more popular. Jennings had 16 touches to Vereen and Williams’ 10 combined in last week’s game.
Matt Jones ($2,600, 1.4% owned) – Jones hasn’t done much since his week 2 huge performance. But, he will be back from the toe injury that sidelined him, and Chris Thompson is likely out. Alfred Morris was unimpressive last week, and Jones comes really cheap against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree ($4,500, 4.8% owned) – Crabtree is kind of forgotten coming off the bye, he doesn’t have gaudy numbers, but was heavily targeted and played Denver and then was off the last two weeks.
Malcom Floyd ($2,500, 2.8% owned) – Gates could be out. Stevie Johnson out. Keenan Allen playing after a hip pointer last week. Floyd is sitting there for value.
Michael Floyd ($2,100, 7.4% owned) – The Ravens are among the worst at defending WR. John Brown missed practice. Floyd’s a decent value play at such a cheap cost even if Brown plays, but if he is out becomes a must-add.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,000, 2.1% owned)- Steelers are 2nd in fantasy points allowed to TE, and Kelce is the top option for the Chiefs in terms of matchup advantage.
Dwayne Allen ($3,800, 0.9% owned)- Allen is the best tight end in Indy, but can’t stay healthy. He worked back in last week with 3 targets, is playing this week, is cheap, has a great matchup, and no one has him.
Ladarius Green ($2,500, 10.5% owned) – he’s sneaking up in popularity, and for good reason. If Gates is out, the Raiders are the worst at giving up TE points this year, and Green would stand to benefit. He’s startable at this price even if Gates suits up.