Will Jeff Fisher Run Todd Gurley into the Ground?

Todd Gurley tore his ACL less than a full year ago, on November 15th, 2014. He was inactive to start the year, while he practiced and worked his way back into game shape coming back from that knee injury. In his first game action in week 3, he had 6 carries working his way back. The next week, that ramped up, as Gurley finished with 19 carries. 15 of those came into the second half, as Gurley had his breakout game. Then, in only his third career game, he had 30 total carries in week 5.

Gurley’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry on a team where all the other backs are under 3 yards a carry. He’s a dynamic player already, and looks to be a young star running back in the mode of LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, or Edgerrin James. That 45 carries over his last 6 quarters is a large workload for any running back, though, let alone one who is less than a year removed from a serious knee injury.

Gurley became the 3rd youngest player in NFL history to have at least 27 rush attempts in a single game, behind only Rashaan Salaam and Edgerrin James, and just younger than Jamal Lewis. When I looked into single-game rushing attempts and injuries several years ago, serious injuries increased soon after high carry games. The transition period for that started at around 24-26 carries, with games of 27 or more carries representing high workload games.

Here are the guys with the most high risk (27 or more carries) games before their 23rd birthday (via pro-football-reference.com):

Martin, Payton, and Smith are in the Hall of Fame and were fine thereafter. Bettis just went in the Hall of Fame, but his road was was not as smooth. After being very good for the first year and a half as a Ram, he went through a stretch where he had 4 high carry games in 6 games. He finished the second half of his 2nd year averaging 2.5 yards per carry, averaged 3.5 yards per carry on fewer than 200 carries the next year, then revitalized his career as a Steeler.

The top two guys on the list both suffered serious knee injuries soon after. Lewis rebounded a few years later to have 2,000 yards rushing. Edge was never again the elite Hall of Fame running back that he appeared to be early on, though he had a long career. Bell battled injury before rebounding later in his career in a new place. Rhodes got a high workload in replacing James in 2001, and tore his knee up that offseason. Salaam battled injuries and is considered a bust. Rogers was the Heisman trophy winner and first overall pick, and also suffered an injury the next year. Likewise, he never again approached the 1,600+ rushing yards and dynamic play he showed as a rookie.

If you want a recent example, Cadillac Williams (who was 23 and not part of the above list) started off his career as a top 5 back with carries of 27, 24, and 37 carries in his first three starts. He injured his foot in the next game and was never the same.

This isn’t to say that we know what Gurley’s threshold is. But, given his injury history, and that he is in the first year of a cost-controlled contract, the prudent course would be to have a pre-determined plan on controlling his touches. This isn’t a DeMarco Murray situation where the team is going to move on in a year and you might as well get all the value you can now. If he were a baseball player ramping up after Tommy John surgery, there’s no way you would see him going from 6 carries to 30 carries in three weeks.

But this isn’t baseball. Jeff Fisher is incentivized to ride Gurley. He is in his fourth year in St. Louis. If he doesn’t win this year, it’s conceivable he doesn’t get a fifth. He has a track record of riding feature backs (Eddie George, Chris Johnson) anyway, but it is clear that Todd Gurley is first, second, and third best option to generate a big play.

I’m still concerned that things may be too much, too soon when it comes to Fisher’s handling of Gurley. He’s a mercurial talent. I would hate to see that ended too soon by running him into the ground.