On College Football: Is Utah Playoff Material?
By Ty Duffy
Week 7 featured 10 of the nation’s Top 20 playing each other, a stunning rivalry ending, and far too much talk about midterm exams. Week 8, on paper, appears shallower. Only two Top 25 teams meet, with Texas A&M heading on the road to Ole Miss. It will be the Aggies first true road game this season. The slate appears settled and orderly. As the truism dictates, it’s time to don your tin foil hat.
Hope for action this Saturday comes through trap games, or, Dabo forbid, a Clemsoning. With road trips and reasonably tough conference games, there are a number of possibilities. Some teams are better than their record, at this stage, suggests. Some are worse.
Utah at USC: Everything has been coming up Whittingham this season. The Utes are 6-0 and a fixture in every super helpful “if the season ended today” playoff grid. Utah exposed Oregon. The Michigan win looks much better in retrospect. Still, it’s hard believing they finish in that final four. Being a dog on the road against a 3-3 team suggests there’s more to that than it being Utah. The Trojans have lost three and four, and have had their head coach fired. But, they have talent and they are capable of rallying.
Alabama vs. Tennessee: Bama looks like Bama. They are stout up front on defense. Their secondary makes plays. They have a backfield beast in Derrick Henry. There’s one thing missing: that efficient passing game. Alabama quarterbacks have ranked in the Top 10 in passer rating four of the past five years. The fifth was A.J. McCarron finishing Top 25 as a sophomore. Jake Coker ranks 62nd in passer rating and 73rd in yards/attempt so far. That’s a major reason the Tide rank 116th in 3rd down conversion percentage. My faith in them can’t be absolute. Butch Jones’ decision-making terrifies in tight situations. But, his team has been strong enough to get into those.
Clemson at Miami: Clemson “brought their guts” against Notre Dame, or, more accurately, they limped away with a win on a missed two-point conversion in a monsoon. The Tigers have shown little to suggest they are playoff material. They may not have to do so to get there. The track ahead is smooth. They play FSU at home. A trip to mediocre Miami may be their second biggest test. Half full, the Hurricanes have a solid quarterback. They have skill talent. They don’t turn the ball over. Half empty, Miami neither converts third downs, nor plays much in the way of defense.
Florida State at Georgia Tech: The Seminoles are unscathed. Like last season, that’s come while not looking imperious against a milquetoast schedule. Their two other road games so far are Boston College (7 offensive points) and Wake Forest (one-score win). Jimbo Fisher knows how to manage quarterbacks, which should make it worrisome he’s kept a firm grip on Everett Golson’s hand brake. Georgia Tech is not a Top 15 team. They have lost five-straight. That said, three of those losses were by one score, three were on the road, and those opponents have a combined record of 26-3 (discounting Notre Dame’s game against Clemson).
Picks
The correction hit last weekend, hard. My picks went 0-5 to fall to 22-13 ATS. Here are the choices for Week 8. Use, fade, or ignore at your own discretion.
USC (-3.5) vs. Utah: This line begs you to bet Utah. Don’t. The Utes have an average pass defense, encountering USC’s speed. Cody Kessler should be able to make some plays underneath. Cal committed six turnovers against the Utes, and still covered. The Trojans had no trouble moving the ball at Notre Dame (missed the cover on a blocked punt). They do so here, and win.
Tennessee (+15) at Alabama: A rivalry game. A situational play. Tennessee enters this game off a bye. Alabama has played three-straight real games. They also come in a bit over valued, after three defensive touchdowns last week. The Vols have enough talent to keep things in range. Alabama has had issues with dual threat quarterbacks. The Tide are 0-4 against the spread at home this year, 3-8 since 2014.
Georgia Tech (+6.5) vs. Florida State: Fade the public money. Follow the Georgia Tech line. FSU has a one-man, big play dependent offense going on the road. The Yellow Jackets got their ground game going, posting 9.4 yards/carry against a decent Pitt team. The largest victory margin in this game, by either team, since Paul Johnson arrived is six points.
Illinois (+7) vs. Wisconsin: Remove preseason perception from the equation. These teams are similar. Both play good defense. Both underwhelm on offense. This game feels very B1G. Not sure either team can distance itself from the other. You might as well take the home team and the points.
Western Kentucky (+17) at LSU: This is a let down spot after a big (and draining) Florida win. LSU has played down to opponents this year. Syracuse and Eastern Michigan were one-score games in the 4th quarter. This isn’t the nasty LSU defense of years past. Teams can move the ball through the air. The Hilltoppers have one of college football’s most prolific passing attacks. They should keep it reasonable.
Coach Who Most Needs a Win
Bret Bielema. Arkansas is 2-4. They are hosting Auburn as a -6.5 favorite. A win diffuses some pressure. A loss forces the Razorbacks to beat Ole Miss or LSU on the road just to reach a bowl game. That’s if they beat Mississippi State and Missouri at home, which isn’t a given.