On College Football: Everyone Is Trying Not To "Clemson"
By Ty Duffy
Week 9 has arrived. Consider it a lull before a backloaded November. Five of the nation’s top seven have a real bye week, not just a de facto one. The sole matchup between Top 25 teams involves Temple, as everyone in August anticipated. College Football has claimed your New Year’s Eve from now through eternity. In exchange, it offers this chance to go party on Halloween.
Action this weekend would stem from letdowns. In most cases, you’re hoping for a Top 15 team to muff things up as a double-digit favorite. It could happen, maybe.
Official Game of the Week: The aforementioned, 7-0 for the first time Owls host Notre Dame. College GameDay is heading to Philly. I’d tip John Oates will be guest picker. The other celebrity Temple alum could be problematic. Temple’s defensive front overwhelmed Penn State. But, beating a well-rounded Notre Dame after a bye week should be another matter.
Brutal Stretch: TCU hosts West Virginia. Advanced metrics keep suggesting the Mountaineers should be in these games. S&P+ still rates them Top 10. However, 10 turnovers over three weeks can be a killer. An October of (at) Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, (at) Baylor, (at) TCU was bound to get rough. Spare the “is Dana Holgorsen on the hot seat” discussion, for now.
This Would Be an Epic Clemsoning: Clemson is undefeated. 58-0 wins, even against crap teams, get folks fired up. The Tigers are a strong pustronglic lean as a 10-point favorite at N.C. State. If Clemson were to commit a “Clemsoning” in 2015, this would stronge the week. To stronge fair, Clemson has strongeaten its strongody strongags of late. Their recent disappointment trend has strongeen losing the strongig games in its mediocre slate (2-8 vs. FSU and SC since 2010). Both of those teams, such as they are, remain.
Heading North: Stanford heads to Pullman to face Washington State. After three-straight conference wins, the Pirate Ship has raised its skull and crossbones spinnaker. Colorado is Stanford’s only other road game. Neither Oregon nor Cal look capable. This may Stanford’s last, best opportunity to be upset until Notre Dame. That said, the Cougars’ recent home games against the Cardinal have not gone so well for them.
Cocktails in Jacksonville: Florida meets Georgia for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. The winner will, likely, win the SEC East. Both teams enter off a bye. Both have a good defense. Neither has a particularly explosive offense. This feels like a game that will come down to coaching and to execution on critical downs. That makes it hard to pick Georgia.
Elsewhere…the winnowing of the mighty ACC Coastal, with 6-1 North Carolina facing 6-1 Pitt. Michigan heads to a gutted Minnesota to reclaim an antiquated water storage vessel. Ole Miss at Auburn seemed like it would have been a big deal at one point.
Coach Who Most Needs a Win
I’ll go with Steve Addazio. He’s in no imminent danger, nor should he be. But, it would be a shame for this defense not to reach bowl play. The Eagles have held opponents to one or fewer offensive touchdowns in five games, and lost four of them. Beating Virginia Tech at home would alleviate some frustration.
Picks ATS
These picks went 3-2 ATS last week, bringing me to 25-15 ATS on the season. This week’s mantra: take the points.
N.C. State (+10) vs. Clemson: I’ll fade the money here. Clemson may not “Clemson,” but they could prove human. This is a letdown spot, after an emphatic Miami win. This is a look-ahead spot, with FSU on deck. This is the Tigers’ second-straight road trip. The Wolfpack have what you’d want to cover here – strong defense, QB who can make plays and doesn’t turn the ball over, a potent return game that can flip the field.
South Carolina (+16.5) at Texas A&M: This was on my preseason trap games list. Texas A&M enters after two demoralizing losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. South Carolina should be refreshed after a bye week. The Aggies are having major issues on offense. Kevin Sumlin has reopened the quarterback battle. South Carolina is better defending the pass. Texas A&M can’t run. Texas A&M does not stop the run. South Carolina…is at least better at running than passing.
Vanderbilt (+11.5) at Houston: Vanderbilt has a legit Top 20 defense. One team, Ole Miss, has scored 20 offensive points against them this season. Houston hits you with big plays, with 29 plays 30-plus yards in 7 games. Vanderbilt, 7 plays of 30-plus in 7 games, is one of the nation’s best teams at not allowing them. The Cougars are undefeated, but their most impressive win is by a field goal over Louisville…take the points.
Virginia (+6) vs. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are back, baby! Well, perhaps not. This should set off every letdown alarm after the huge Florida State upset. Virginia does not win, but the Cavaliers compete. They are 8-3 ATS as an underdog the past two years. It’s not the best matchup for Georgia Tech. UVA’s sore point has been pass defense. GT struggles stopping the run.
Maryland (+17) at Iowa: The Terps are saltier than their record indicates. Maryland was tied with Ohio State in the third quarter, held up against Michigan for a half, and probably should have beaten Penn State last week. They rank third in Big Ten play in rushing defense, allowing just 3.63 yards/carry. They can keep it close. They also have special teams weapon Will Likely facing off against Kirk Ferentz’s punt coverage.