Shaking Out The College Football Playoff, Week 10
By Ty Duffy
Week 10 is in the metaphorical books. There was movement on the College Football Playoff front, with undefeated TCU, LSU, Michigan State and Memphis falling. By our reckoning, there are 16 teams still remaining. Seven teams need to beat the teams in front of them. Nine teams need to win and to have other dominoes fall.
The committee will fluctuate teams and justifications with rankings week-to-week. Here is our projection for how things shake out when it matters.
Win and They Are In
Clemson: The Tigers have clinched the ACC Atlantic. It’s hard to see them dropping a game from at Syracuse, Wake, at South Carolina. Though, North Carolina in the conference title game is looking frisky.
Ohio State/Iowa: Both these teams need to win out and win the conference. Iowa needs to be undefeated with its poor schedule strength. An 11-1 Ohio State won’t get in ahead of a Michigan or Michigan State team that beat them. Those teams are their CV for a playoff berth.
Baylor/Oklahoma State: The committee dinged these teams for schedule strength. That will improve in November. If Baylor or OSU gets through undefeated, they will be a lock. One loss is another matter.
Alabama/Florida: The system isn’t about fairness. A one-loss SEC champ is in over other one-loss champs. If both these teams win out, the winner in Atlanta is a lock for the playoff. Bump LSU up here if Bama falters.
Win and Need Some Help
Stanford/Utah: The committee does not seem enamored with the Pac 12. But Stanford winning out would mean closing with two strong wins over Notre Dame and Utah. The Utes still have UCLA, would beat Stanford, and have that opening win over Michigan in the back pocket for argument season. If one of the above scenarios falters, either at 12-1 would move in.
Notre Dame: Notre Dame has Wake, BC, and Stanford left. If the Irish win out, they eliminate Stanford and are right there for a berth should one of the top four scenarios falter.
Oklahoma/TCU: The Big 12 round robin has only begun. Both teams could still win the conference. A one-loss Big 12 champ still faces a battle. The committee doesn’t give Big 12 teams credit for “scheduling” a Power 5 opponent with a 9th conference game. Oklahoma probably has a better shot at 11-1 than TCU. They would close with wins over Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State. They would also have the non-conference win at Tennessee.
MSU/Michigan: These teams need to win the Big Ten, and need help. Fortunately for MSU, it’s who you beat, not who you lost to. They can still beat Ohio State and Iowa, win the Big Ten, and have a shot. Michigan can do the same, but needs Ohio State to beat MSU, needs to close with wins over Ohio State and Iowa, and needs to root for chaos.
LSU: The Tigers can still win the SEC West, if Alabama falters on road trips to Auburn or to Mississippi State. Both are conceivable. Granted chaos, they could be a credible, 10-1 at large candidate. Though, that argument would be more difficult.
North Carolina: They are 8-1. They looked excellent against Duke. My how things would be different had they not had the turnover apocalypse against South Carolina in the opener. They could win out against Miami, VT, and N.C. State. They could beat Clemson in the title game. The question becomes what is their second best win? That mediocre schedule would be a killer.