College Football Coach of the Year: Jim McElwain Narrowly Over Jim Harbaugh?

The 2015 regular season is rounding its final corner. One of college football’s biggest debates at season’s end will be coach of the year. We’ve seen unexpected excellence. We’ve seen dramatic turnarounds. The American became a reputable football conference. There are a number of ways this award could go.

HIGH PROFILE FIRST-YEAR TURN-AROUND

Jim McElwain [Florida] McElwain has the Gators 9-1. He won the SEC East. He has a good shot to finish out 11-1 with a narrow loss to LSU. No one expected that. That said, the Gators have benefitted from the rest of the East cratering. None of their wins look that special with hindsight. The strength of the team has been a great defense, which McElwain, a former offensive coordinator, inherited.

Jim Harbaugh [Michigan] Harbaugh took control of a dumpster fire, added Iowa’s backup quarterback, and has the Wolverines ranked in the Top 15, poised to challenge for the Big Ten and (with help) a playoff place. It’s a commendable job, to be sure. However, he doesn’t have that statement win, yet. Check back if Michigan upsets Ohio State.

EXCELLENCE

Dabo Swinney [Clemson] Clemson has been the nation’s best team, outside rebounding Alabama. That said, how much do we value okay home wins against Notre Dame and Florida State’s worst team in years and not dropping the ball against a milquetoast conference slate?

Kirk Ferentz [Iowa] Iowa is 10-0. It’s crazy. It appears Kirk Ferentz can still coach. But, the Hawkeyes had perhaps the easiest Power 5 schedule. It wasn’t out of the realm of possibility a solid Iowa team could make a run.

Mike Gundy [Oklahoma State] The Cowboys are undefeated. If they beat Baylor and Oklahoma at home, they win the Big 12. It’s a huge turnaround after a transition year in 2014. Try to ignore the four one-score wins against underwhelming conference teams.

OUTSIDE POWER 5

Tom Herman [Houston] Herman inherited a solid, 8-5 team. He has the Cougars 10-0. He orchestrated a huge comeback over Memphis with his backup quarterback. After one year at Houston, he’s poised to win the December coaching carousel, if he wants.

Justin Fuente [Memphis] Back-to-back losses to Navy and to Houston have diminished his star somewhat. Memphis still has a road trip to Temple next week. However, beating Ole Miss may be the best non-Power 5 win.

Matt Rhule [Temple] Temple dropped the ball a bit against USF. Though, winning 10 games at Temple is no small feat. Crushing Penn State and nearly beating Notre Dame were massive achievements.

Ken Niumatalolo [Navy] Coaching a service academy presents difficulties no other coach deals with. The Midshipmen are 8-1, with a loss to Notre Dame. That has come after joining a new conference. If Navy wins out at Tulsa, at Houston and (probably) Temple, that would be a strong statement.

PREDICTION

Looking at past winners, the award skews toward established programs that have unexpected great seasons. Ferentz and Gundy fit that form going undefeated. Since we’re not sure that’s probable, we’ll give Jim McElwain the inside track if the Gators close out 11-1. Harbaugh may be the guy if Michigan wins the Big Ten though that seems less likely.