College Football Playoff Breakdown: Notre Dame Will Need Help

Week 11 saw some playoff movement. Oklahoma beat Baylor in Waco. Stanford (Oregon) and Utah (Arizona) fell, guaranteeing a two-loss Pac 12 champ. As we head into the final regular season weekends, the situation has clarified. Here are the candidates ranked based on probability.

Clemson: Perception is set. Clemson is undefeated, with wins over Notre Dame and Florida State. If the Tigers keep dancing – Wake, at South Carolina, ACC Title Game – they reach the playoff. Drop a game (term it what you will) and things become more interesting.

Alabama/Florida: This is a business. Fair or not, the S-E-C champ gets in ahead of any other one-loss team. Alabama looks dominant, leaving shattered opponents in its wake. Florida has a flimsier resume, but, at 12-1, would have beaten Bama. That would get them in.

Ohio State/Iowa: An undefeated B1G champ is in. Ohio State has yet to face a ranked team. Beating MSU, Michigan, and Iowa would give them a resume. Iowa would score a win over Ohio State. Northwestern, Wisconsin or both will be hanging around the Top 25. That would be enough.

Oklahoma/Oklahoma State: The playoff is predicated on winning a Power 5 conference meaning something. Eschewing a Big 12 champion with an equal or better case, again, would cause an absolute meltdown. Establishment figures would be calling for an 8-game playoff. It would bring the committee’s integrity into doubt. The committee follows the path of least resistance. Least resistance is avoiding that outcome.

Oklahoma State can still finish undefeated. Wins over TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma will offer a strong enough case. The 1-loss Sooners would have wins against Baylor (road), TCU, and Oklahoma State (road). They are assassinating teams. They won away against a decent SEC team. The debate vs. Notre Dame is hardly a debate. If they win out, they are in.

Michigan State: Quality wins count for more than quality losses. As with Oklahoma, it’s better to drop an unexpected game (on a missed call), than surrender an opportunity for a top-tier victory. If Michigan State wins out, they will have wins over Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa away from home. Their Oregon win is starting to look good again. At 12-1, the Spartans would have opened a space and would have the strongest resume to fill it.

Baylor/TCU: Both fell early. But, either of these two could still win the Big 12. That team would have two Top 10 to Top 15-ish wins before the gun. That would mean two wins roughly on par with Notre Dame’s one win over Stanford. We think they still squeak in ahead of Notre Dame, but it’s more of a debate than Oklahoma State or Oklahoma would be.

Notre Dame: We’re not saying the Irish haven’t had a tough schedule. But, they will be short on quality wins. Stanford on the road would be a strong win (but now a three-loss one). They will be arguing their way ahead of teams that have at least two or three of those. Temple lost big to South Florida. USC has three losses and two tough games left. Irish fans need to be rooting hard for Navy and chaos.

Michigan: If the Wolverines win out and Ohio State beats MSU, they win the B1G East. Beating Iowa would see them finish 11-2. That would mean two quality wins to close the season. Northwestern could add a third Top 20-ish win. If that happens, Michigan frees up a place by eliminating Ohio St./MSU/Iowa. If Stanford beats Notre Dame…the Wolverines are right there. Jim Harbaugh would attract John Q. Casual Viewer.

Stanford/Utah: There’s still a chance, albeit a small one. Stanford can eliminate Notre Dame with a win. They probably then need Michigan to win the Big Ten and then talk their way in ahead of them. Utah can still finish 11-2. The Utes need Stanford to win out until the title game. They need USC to lose. If the fourth place comes down to Utah or Michigan, Utah has a head-to-head win…

North Carolina: Worth mentioning, barely. North Carolina has to win three road games. On the road thus far, two one-score wins and a loss to South Carolina. Even then, their schedule stinks. Beating Clemson would be their entire resume. Would that get them in over two-loss Stanford, two-loss Michigan, or one-loss Notre Dame? The Tar Heels need chaos.

PREDICTION TODAY

Clemson
Alabama
Ohio State
Oklahoma