Ohio State's 2015 Season Starts Saturday, Will Michigan State Challenge Them?
By Ty Duffy
On College Football
The Ohio State Buckeyes are undefeated. They have weathered offensive struggles and quarterback drama, on and off the field. They have not faced a Top 25 opponent, at the time or at present. Their toughest “test,” thus far, has been 7-3 Penn State at home.
Point this out to a wise Buckeye fan, and he or she will point out they can only play the teams on their schedule. Point this out to the run of the mill sort, he or she will tweet back a picture of the national title trophy and tell you you have been “pwnd.” The fact remains: we have not seen Ohio State tested.
Maybe Ohio State has received an undue benefit of the doubt. But, it’s irrelevant. Résumé season has arrived. The Buckeyes face Michigan State (No. 9), Michigan (No. 12), and if they win those, Iowa (No. 5) to close the season. Win out and they are in. Drop a game and they become the team to bet against in a bitter “New Years Six” bowl game. Toss in a side helping of chain pizza.
We can presume Ohio State is a very good football team. Ranking No. 16 in S&P+ offense and No. 7 in S&P+ defense tells us something. Ohio State ran over its best opposing defense, Penn State, without issue. The Buckeye defense held its best opposing offense, Indiana, to 4.42 yards/play.
Ohio State has the capability. But, are the screws tight? Do they have the drive and the focus to repeat? We’ll find that out on the field, but will it be this week?
MSU will be Ohio State’s best opponent, by a wide margin. But, the Buckeyes are still 13-point favorites. That is nearly the spread MSU was favored by last week against Maryland at home. You won’t believe this, but Michigan State is treating this as a sign of disrespect. In fact, the Spartans are the top public bet this season. Vegas has been feasting upon the amount of respect MSU has been getting.
The record is similar. But, these are not the 2013 or 2014 Spartans. The back end of the defense is soft. The offense is one dimensional. So Connor Cook will be throwing with a bum shoulder, in the Horseshoe, in subpar weather, against a top caliber defense. Not to mention MSU’s offensive line issues against Ohio State’s defensive front. Michigan State may be Ohio State’s toughest test to date. But, that doesn’t mean it will be tough.
Michigan’s exhausted defense is being carried by their explosive, Jake Rudock-led passing attack. Iowa is Iowa. Ohio State’s true “test” may not come until somber, college football with confetti time.
AS THE BIG 12 TURNS
Last year, the Big 12 did not play enough meaningful games at the finish. This year, they saved their meaningful games for too long. Goldilocks wants the conference to have a title game, an eight-team playoff, or maybe a few more live non-conference opponents so we can place this is any sort of context.
Baylor lost quarterback Seth Russell for the season. TCU lost star wideout Josh Doctson, and Trevone Boykin is still a “maybe” for this weekend. It’s not apparent what beating either team means anymore.
The best thing for the conference may be both teams eliminating themselves this weekend to set up a clear, winner-take-all Bedlam game between Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. That winner would probably be heading for the playoff.
PICKS
We went 3-2 last week. Our picks are 33-22 ATS this season.
Ohio State (-13) vs. Michigan State: Michigan State can’t run. They can’t stop the pass. They are 3-7 ATS this year (and a couple of those covers were flukes). MSU’s offensive line has been banged up. The Spartans will live and die on Connor Cook converting long 3rd downs (with a bad shoulder, against an elite defense, on the road). Take the Buckeyes.
Ole Miss (-4.5) vs. LSU: LSU will be deflated mentally and physically after consecutive losses to Alabama and Arkansas. Ole Miss is at home refreshed after a bye week. The Rebels should find traction through the air. They have a decent enough run defense. The LSU-Texas A&M game could get interesting.
Boston College (+15.5) vs. Notre Dame: Notre Dame can’t help but look ahead to Stanford. This is a rivalry game. It will be a weird, night game at Fenway. BC still has a top five defense, and the Eagles are coming off a bye. The Irish will have to manage key players to keep them healthy. Party like it’s 1993?
USC (+4) at Oregon: This game comes the week after a season-redefining Stanford win. That leaves the Ducks primed for a physical and psychological let down. Both teams possess prolific, well-rounded offenses. USC has a much better defense. The one thing you can’t do against USC is let them pass. Oregon’s secondary has been a disaster area. Shootout. Field goal game. Take the points.
Vanderbilt (+7) vs. Texas A&M: Take the home dog in the SEC. Texas A&M will be looking ahead to LSU. The Aggies have had offensive issues. The Commodores, on our best bad teams list, have a bonafide top 10 defense. This is only A&M’s second trip outside Texas this season. The last one was a 23-3 defeat to Ole Miss.