College Football Playoff Predictions: Oklahoma Sitting Pretty, Alabama's Stock Falling?

The College Football Playoff selection committee will release the season’s penultimate set of rankings tonight. It figures to be light on drama.

The brewing Oklahoma-Notre Dame debate has fizzled. The Sooners locked up a spot before halftime in Stillwater. The Big Ten appears destined to have a representative in the final four. Favorites Clemson, Alabama and Michigan State taking care of business wouldn’t be as fun as the oft-predicted chaos.

What’s surprising is the number of fans who seem upset by this. One wonders if there are people out there missing out on a perfectly reasonable and fair system because they’re too busy clamoring for an eight-team playoff. Barring upsets, the committee should do its job this year without too much complaint.

I’d argue that’s a good thing.

What the top 8 will look like:

Clemson
Alabama
Oklahoma
Iowa
Michigan State
Ohio State
Stanford
North Carolina

What the top 8 should look like:

Clemson
Oklahoma
Iowa
Alabama
Michigan State
Ohio State
Stanford
Florida State

Tonight’s uncertainty revolves not around which teams will occupy the top spots, but the order in which they’re slotted. With just one Saturday of games remaining, current positioning is important and, as you’ll see, not as simple as copy-and-pasting from last week.

Clemson stands firm atop the list despite struggling with in-state rival South Carolina. The Tigers have done more than enough to solidify the No. 1 ranking and were in no real danger of losing to the Gamecocks. They are the most impressive of the undefeated teams. Their two signature victories (over Notre Dame and Florida State) are far more appealing than Iowa’s two best victories (at Wisconsin and at Northwestern). Reasonable eye-test arguments could be made by Alabama and Oklahoma advocates but the Tigers’ undefeated status easily erases any deficit there. In fact, a victory over North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game should be enough to prevent Alabama, Iowa or Michigan State from leapfrogging into that desired position.

Oklahoma is second mostly due to the committee’s preference for conference champions. The Sooners are the only team with that particular feather already in their cap. Bob Stoops’ team is in a great position both metrically and visually. They are playing their best ball of the season at the right time. Having said that, it’s my belief both Alabama and the Iowa-Michigan State winner will jump them in next week’s rankings. The Big 12’s lack of a conference title game continues to hurt teams by denying them a chance at an additional resumé-building victory.

Iowa completed a 12-0 season by capitalizing on Tommy Armstrong’s mistakes in Lincoln. It wasn’t a performance to set the earth on fire. But you know what it was? Another damn victory. Fighting a battle against an undefeated Power 5 team is getting old. At a certain point the Hawkeyes have to be given credit for what they’ve done — despite that nagging feeling many have deep down in their souls that this may be a very mediocre team masquerading as a contender. Saturday night in Indianapolis should go a long way in clearing things up. Beating a Connor Cook-led Spartans team catapults them over any one-loss team. It’s not unreasonable to expect a No. 1 seeding should Clemson stumble. What a time to be alive.

Alabama may be the best team in college football. But is it really possible that they’ll end the regular season without a victory over a Top 25 team? And if so, how do you ignore that? Let’s be clear: give me the Crimson Tide on a neutral field over any other side. That uncertainty, however, makes their position the most volatile. Nick Saban’s team could end up No. 4 just as easily as No. 1. As a 17-point favorite over Florida they won’t be given a ton of credit no matter how dominant a performance they author. Make no mistake, though. The only thing that should matter to the other three teams in the playoff, position-wise, is that they avoid a semifinal matchup with Alabama. No number next to that name will change the on-field product.

Michigan State has road victories over Ohio State and Michigan, plus a win over a Vernon Adams-led Oregon team. Adding Iowa to that list would give the Spartans just as viable a claim to the top spot as any other one-loss team. It probably won’t happen like that, but it’s worth mentioning. The fact that the Big Ten title game is being categorized as a play-in game for #4 seed in the playoff is a bit odd. It’s hard to imagine Oklahoma withstanding the champion of the Midwest, when either Iowa or Michigan State will add a high-quality win.

Ohi0 State and Stanford need help, and how the committee views North Carolina is the lurking variable. The Tar Heels have won 11 in a row and have a real chance of winning the ACC with an upset of Clemson. That would easily be their best win.

We’ll know if North Carolina has any chance based on where they fall tonight. They were 14th last week, and their win over NC State wasn’t that impressive compared to the team in front of them #13, Florida State, winning at Florida. Notre Dame (6th last week) and Baylor (7th last week) also lost close games on the road on the final play. If the Tar Heels get into the Top 8, then they have a chance. If they are still behind Notre Dame, Baylor and/or Florida State, in addition to Ohio State and Stanford, it’s hard to see them leaping those two.

Between OSU and Stanford, the conference champion Cardinal would likely get the nod (candidly it’s my belief the Buckeyes are the second-best team in the country and the MSU game was a complete fluke). The committee picking a team that finished tied for third in their conference would be shocking.

Then again, given what happened to TCU last year, all bets are off.

[Images via USA Today Sports]