College Football Championship Week Preview

Championship Week is here. For all the nine-digit TV deals. There are four games of import this weekend. The three with single-digit spreads take place at the same time. Thanks, TV execs.

SEC Championship Game

Alabama is where those, who were not on the Gus Bus in August, predicted. Florida won the East sooner than anticipated. That says more about the East than the Gators, who scored two points against Florida State. A Florida win may eliminate the SEC from the playoff. Though, never discount the power of S-E-C narrative.

There’s ample familiarity here. Master Nick Saban meets apprentice Jim McElwain. Both McElwain’s coordinators are former Saban minions. There’s also some distraction, with Kirby Smart off to Georgia, after the playoff. Saban would like you to talk to the coke bottle.

Alabama and Florida have very good defenses. Offense is another matter. UF has struggled without Will Grier. The Tide not passed with customary efficiency. This feels like a game where Bama rides Derrick Henry to a comfortable but not so outlandish victory.

Pick: Florida (+18)

ACC Championship Game

This is the best playoff “chaos” opportunity, if North Carolina upsets Clemson. The Tigers would have the best résumé of the one loss teams, but UNC and Stanford would have conference titles. Ohio State, like a truly great team, made sure to lose the penultimate weekend. North Carolina should be the ultimate call in that scenario. But, it would be discussed. So, will this upset happen? Perhaps.

Clemson is only a -4.5 favorite. The Tigers have strong defensive stats. But, if you wish to don a monocle, The Tar Heels have the most explosive and versatile offense Clemson has faced. The Tigers’ one potent offense met, Notre Dame, was hampered by the infamous monsoon. Flipping the script, the major weakness on the field is North Carolina’s run defense. Gallman and Watson should be able to get Clemson to manageable downs and keep UNC off the field.

Pick: Clemson (-4.5)

B1G Championship Game

No Urban Meyer. No Jim Harbaugh. Incredibly, they’re still awarding a trophy, and a playoff place. Iowa is undefeated. The Hawkeyes don’t have a true quality win, though the committee could take care of that. Michigan State beat Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon. Though, those wins came by three, four, and three points respectively.

The committee had a “great debate” about which team should be No. 4 and which No. 5. That debate tells you everything you need to know about how asinine having a weekly playoff poll is. For the first big game this season, the Spartans must surrender the disrespect gambit to the opponent. Kirk Ferentz is 4-3 against Mark Dantonio, though the Spartans have won eight of ten against ranked opponents, dating back to 2013.

Both teams will try to run against imperious opposing fronts. It would not be the Big Ten otherwise. Iowa has the better pass defense. But, Michigan State has the better quarterback and receivers. This feels like a slight Iowa line. There’s definite #LawofGus potential. But, we just can’t trust Kirk Ferentz.

Pick: Michigan State (-3.5)

Pac 12 Title Game

Three one score wins against bad teams. Double-digit losses against the two best opponents. Clay Helton, nonetheless, is your permanent USC head coach. We can all agree. If there was one thing the Trojans needed, it was keeping that internal culture alive. The Pac 12’s worst AD making an inexperienced gut hire. What could go wrong?

Stanford is still alive for the playoff, technically. They evaded Notre Dame, despite David Shaw’s atrocious clock management. The Cardinal won the first meeting 41-31. Rematches can be closer, though Stanford playing UCLA back-to-back weeks in 2012 was a bit of a one-off.

USC is talented, but not outstanding at anything. Stanford has an efficient, powerful offense and nothing resembling a “Stanford” defense. This game reads “shootout.” Kevin Hogan is better than Cody Kessler. But, USC’s athletes are better than Stanford’s. The Trojans did hold Stanford to four yards/carry in the first game. Feels like it’s a field goal either way. These games have a track record of running close. Let down spot for Stanford. We’ll take the points.

Pick: USC (+4.5)

American Championship Game

This is the American Championship Game, not one of those untrustworthy foreign ones. Huge implications for the Group of Five’s condescending New Years Six bowl bid. Tom Herman and Matt Rhule, defying the odds, are still coaching their teams. MAC you leave. AAC you can afford to be choosy.

Temple has a top-flight defense. Houston has a prolific offense. Owls QB P.J. Walker has averaged 10.0 yards/attempt his last two times out against porous pass defenses. Houston has that.

Pick: Temple (+5.5)

Baylor vs. Texas

It’s not a championship game. Most likely, it won’t be worth mentioning. But, we’d be remiss not bringing up that Texas is a +20.5 underdog against Baylor, starting a third-string quarterback. Ouch.