Tom Coughlin Defended Key Fourth Down Call By Claiming He Has Been Aggressive, Is There Any Pattern to His Decisions?

Tom Coughlin is catching heat tonight for a fourth down decision he made in the Jets’ loss when leading 20-10, with the ball at the Jets’ 4-yard line, and 8:50 remaining. He opted against the field goal to go up by 13, instead trying to pick up the first down or score a dagger touchdown. Eli Manning threw an interception on the play. The Jets marched down the field and got a field goal, then scored the tying touchdown on the final drive, before winning in overtime.

Coughlin defended the decision to get aggressive, and also claimed to have done so all year.

Before getting to the specifics of this call, let’s cover that claim. Before today, the Giants have had 23 fourth downs faced in the 4th quarter or overtime this year. They kicked (punt or field goal) on 19 of them. Of the four attempts, all were in obvious go-for-it situations, trailing by 2+ scores, or in the final minute of a game when trailing.

Conversely, the Giants/Coughlin have done the following:

• In week 1, kicked a FG on the Dallas 1, with 1:37 remaining, to go up by 6. Dallas won with a touchdown;
• In week 2, punted in “no man’s land” from the Atlanta 39 on 4th and 3, with a field goal lead. Atlanta would score a TD later to win the game;
• In week 5, with 4:37 left, kicked a FG from the 1, to take a 23-20 lead against SF. The 49ers would score a TD to take the lead, but Eli Manning led a two-minute drill drive to take the lead back and win it.
• Against Tampa Bay, leading 20-18, kicked a long 54-yard field goal rather than go on 4th and 3, in what would be an arguable situation either way given the distance and relative success rates. Eventually put away the win on a defensive touchdown in the last seconds after being up 8.

The only other situation where you might consider the Giants being “aggressive” was against the Patriots, though that was more a case of bad game management. After getting a first and goal at the 5 with 2:06 left, and the Patriots having only a timeout left, the Giants passed. It only took 5 seconds. So then they passed again. That set up 3rd down coming out of the two minute warning. Eli was sacked, the Patriots were able to use their final timeout with 1:50 still remaining, and Tom Brady took the Patriots down the field for a last second FG, seconds that wouldn’t have been there if the Giants had been able to run a play that got to the two-minute warning on first and goal.

I don’t see any clear pattern of the Giants being burned by aggressiveness. Probably moreso by being conservative on the goal line, coupled with bad game management in the Pats game.

Turning, though to the decision to kick. Let me first say that I am writing this after the fact, in clear “second guess” territory. I don’t think it is the most egregious tactical error we’ve seen–I would put that on the coaches (Quinn and Tomlin) who kicked short field goals late in games to keep their teams still trailing, when a TD could give them the lead.

That said, while I am generally a proponent of going for it moreso than conventional wisdom, I think this is a case where the “expected points” of going for it is negated by the game situation of already being ahead by more than a score, and being able to stretch the lead. What I mean by that is, more times than not, the Giants would get more average points by going for what is basically a two-point conversion distance inside the 5. But, the increase on their chances of winning is less affected.

According to the pro-football-reference win probability calculator, the Giants chances were roughly as follows:

• Up by 17 (by going and then scoring a TD): 99.9%
• Up by 13 (by kicking FG): 99.4%
• Up by 10 (by going and failing): 97.3%

What you should notice there is that (a) the Giants were a huge favorite to close it out with the ball inside the Jets’ 5 already up 10 in the fourth quarter, so they played poorly to get the Jets back into it, regardless of the decision, and (b) the benefit of being up 17 for 13, interestingly, isn’t as huge because the chances are very high either way.

I assume part of this is teams rarely come back, and also because both a) it precludes a field goal on the penultimate possession, and b) the leading team can still stretch the lead again with any offense of their own and another field goal.

I’ll also point out that when we are talking aggressive, the Giants opted for field goals in two other situations earlier, that are more arguably go for it cases. Leading 7-3, the Giants kicked at the Jets 2-yard line in the first half. There, part of the reason to go is that coaches are conservative at their own goal line unless they are incentivized otherwise. In the 4th, knowing they need points, the Jets will be aggressive. In the second quarter, they are likely more conservative. In fact, the Jets got the kickoff in better field position and quickly moved down the field via the pass, tying it after that short attempt.

The other one was near the end of the half, that’s more understandable as there wasn’t much time left even if they converted, but Coughlin again went field goal in a short yardage situation.

I don’t know that there’s a rhyme or reason, honestly, and it seems like more like a feel thing where whatever is done lately seems to not work out. The feel has been off.

In fact, Tom Coughlin’s teams are 69-73 all-time now in the regular season in games decided by 7 points or less. He is, however, 7-1 in those same types of close games in the playoffs, with all the wins coming in 1996, 2007 (Super Bowl win), and 2011 (Super Bowl win). I’m not sure there’s another coach who’s career would be viewed so differently based on a handful of plays–fumbles, missed field goals, huge catches–going another way.

Whether he’s been aggressive or not (and again the record overall is debatable), the Giants are 2-9 over the last two years in close games. While I can’t provide you any clear data to support such voodoo, I’d like to think it’s because whatever deal with the devil led to 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl wins has come due.