NFL Musings, Week 13: When Will the NFL Do Away With Bad Division Winners Hosting Playoff Games?

Take Your Bad Division Winners Getting a Home Game and Shove It

As you are sitting watching tonight’s Washington-Dallas slugfest, ponder your existence. Then, think about one of these two teams potentially getting a playoff spot and hosting someone like the two-time NFC Champ Seattle Seahawks, because Seattle happened to be located West of the Rocky Mountains along with the Arizona Cardinals.

Or, picture last night’s laugher in Pittsburgh as the Steelers won 45-10, moved to 7-5, and still aren’t in playoff position, while the Indianapolis Colts held on to the lead in the AFC South.

I’m going to take up my annual soapbox about division winners getting automatic home games in the NFL, regardless of how good or mediocre they are. It’s like a tradition. Back in 2007, when I was just writing on the Pro Football Reference blog in my spare time, I wrote about how I thought it would be an issue that should be addressed. That was before we had even seen a team with a losing record in the playoffs.

In 2010, I wrote about it at the start of the season, in my first month here at the site. That season, Seattle would make the postseason and host the New Orleans Saints (and win) after finishing 7-9.

Last year, I again took up the case, arguing it was way past time for the owners to address it. I’ll spare you all the argument details, but it basically can be summed up thusly (a) the case for this being tradition is weak, (b) home games are zero sum, we are just rewarding better teams, and (c) teams that win divisions with bad records tend to suck, or at least be among the worst and least deserving playoff teams.

I have heard that we must keep it because “your first goal as a team is to win your division.” My first goal when I get up is to get a shower, but like the entire NFC East, I have a losing record in that regard.

This has gotten to the point where you can pretty much say it is endemic of the current system. Most years, our randomly generated geographical (or in the Dallas/Washington case, not so much) pairings will produce at least one loathsome foursome. Since the 8-division structure began in 2002, we’ve had at least one division winner with 9 or fewer wins 10 times out of 13 years. Five years, there’s been a team with 8 or fewer winning a division and hosting a game. This will most certainly be the sixth in 14 years when at least one division winner hosts with 8 wins or less.

In comparison, in the previous 14 years with the six-division format, there were no division winners with 8 or fewer wins, and only 4 years where the worst division winner had 9 wins.

If you want to give these teams a spot in the tourney for winning their slap fights, so be it. None of the current teams in the AFC South or NFC East have even a .500 record against teams outside the division, let alone a winning one. But let’s not give them a home game just for existing. The playoff races would be so much more interesting if teams like Seattle, Minnesota, and Kansas City were also trying to get a home game in the Wildcard Round, and if the AFC South winner had to surge to avoid New England or Denver on the road in the opener.

Eagles Still Have Issues, Again Rely on Big Returns for a Much-Needed Result

Philadelphia pulled a major upset at New England, and it might be the difference in making the postseason at 7-9 in the NFC East when we look back. It was one of the wild, fluky games where you throw up your hands and say: football!

Philadelphia scored on a punt block, a 99-yard interception return TD, and a punt return TD. The turnover margin was even. It’s a once or twice a year event in the NFL that a team gets outgained as signficantly as the Eagles did, and does not win the turnover battle, but wins the game. The last one, perhaps fittingly, was Washington beating Philadelphia last year in week 16 to basically end the Eagles’ playoff hopes. Philadelphia, meanwhile, was the last team to have three non-offensive TDs in a game, last year against San Francisco. At least this time they won.

Chip Kelly’s boys have won two games this year while having less than 250 yards. He came to revolutionize offense, but is relying on big special teams plays to prevail. That earlier win, against the Jets, did not signal any kind of long-term improvement after a rough stretch. At least it wasn’t another 45 points allowed, and the Eagles will take it.

For the Patriots, yes, they have offensive concerns due to injury. But I’m not sure you can take from this other than don’t give up 14 points on special teams and also turn a clear scoring opportunity into a touchdown the other way.

The Chiefs Surge and Would Need to Collapse to Not Make History

From 1-5 to six straight wins for Kansas City. Without all-pro pass rusher Justin Houston, they again went on the road and one at Oakland yesterday, in what was, on paper, their toughest remaining test.

Kansas City is in a tie with both Pittsburgh and the Jets for the wildcard spots in the AFC, but they sit in very good position, for all the following reasons:

Schedule: The Chiefs close with 3 of 4 at home, and all against losing teams. They will be favored by more than a touchdown against the Chargers, Browns, and Raiders at home. They will be close to a touchdown favorite on the road at the Matt Schaub version of the Ravens. The chances they go 4-0 against that is about 35%, with another 45% chance of going 3-1. That’s an extremely high chance of locking in at 10-6 or better.

Tiebreakers: The Chiefs went 1-3 against the NFC North. Fortunately, for tiebreaker reasons, that means they are 6-2 against the AFC (losses to Denver and Cincinnati). If they get to 10-6, they will own the tiebreaker over any potential foes. They’ve also beaten Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Houston.

Seahawks are Surging Down the Stretch, Can the Vikings Hold Off … The Bucs?

Seattle had their 2015 statement game on Sunday. They destroyed Minnesota on the road, 38-7. That word might not even do it justice. Seattle allowed Minnesota only 125 total yards and 9 first downs. Russell Wilson averaged over 10 yards a pass and threw 3 more touchdowns. For all the great games that the Legion of Boom and Seahawks defense has played over the last 5 years, that was the fewest yards allowed.

Seattle might still technically be in the last wildcard spot, still behind Minnesota, but I would be stunned if they didn’t finish in the 5th seed position. They have Baltimore and Cleveland the next two weeks, before hosting the offensively-inept Rams.

Minnesota, meanwhile, goes to Arizona on a short week. Then, they host both the Bears and Giants before closing at Green Bay. If Minnesota falters in one of those home games, 9-7 is a very real possibility. The Vikings secured the tiebreaker over Atlanta, and quite frankly, it’s hard to envision the Falcons going on a surge (which would require winning out, with two against Carolina).

After Chicago barfing away the home game against San Francisco after having a lead late, the only team with a puncher’s chance of upsetting the current playoff picture in the NFC is Tampa Bay. I’m still not sold on the Bucs as being any great shakes, but they do have a favorable schedule and the requisite tiebreakers. They play the Saints at home, at the Rams, and the Bears at home over the next three weeks. If they can win 2 of 3, and have Minnesota lose 2 of 3, then week 17 could actually be interesting.

Tampa would go to Carolina. Carolina might be playing for perfection. If they have a loss, they might also just be playing out the string with their spot secured. Minnesota, meanwhile, is almost certainly going to have to play Green Bay on the road with something on the line. That’s really your only scenario for drama in NFC seeding by week 17–other than, you know, being treated to the greatness of the NFC East fight.

[photos via USA Today Sports Images]