The 2015 College Football Media Survey: A Look Back
By Ty Duffy
Before the 2015 regular season, we polled 27 college football media members about their thoughts for the upcoming season. With the season over, we felt it was an optimal time to look back. The lesson: predictions are hard.
The Playoff
August consensus whiffed on the playoff. Unanimous choice Ohio State (27 votes) missed narrowly. Second favorite Auburn (18 votes) finished a dreadful 6-6, 2-6 in conference. TCU (15 votes) and Baylor (10 votes) missed the playoff as well. Of teams that reached the playoff, Alabama received six votes. Clemson received three votes. One voter picked Michigan State. No one thought Oklahoma would reach the final four.
Full disclosure: TBL writers went a combined 3/20 on their playoff picks. Ty Duffy and Jason Lisk had Alabama. Jason McIntyre had Clemson. Technically, we outperformed the media at large. Again, predictions are hard, even with a limited pool of realistic candidates.
Heisman Trophy
Respondents fared better with the Heisman. Favorite Trevone Boykin (8 votes) was among the leaders while healthy. Second favorite J.T. Barrett (5 votes) did not start the season as Ohio State’s quarterback, but should have. There isn’t really a standout, automatic winner this year voters missed.
From the TBL writers: Ty Duffy and Jason Lisk predicted Deshaun Watson. Michael Shamburger had Leonard Fournette. Jason McIntyre had…Brad Kaaya edging Christian Hackenberg. To be fair, the EIC had Stanford as his surprise team and Auburn as his disappointing team.
Baylor QB Seth Russell (4 votes) was the favorite for breakout player. He was having a strong season until he went down with an injury. Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson and Jovon Robinson did not have the seasons expected of them.
Most Anticipated Game
Voters had TCU vs. Baylor (7 votes) pegged as a playoff eliminator. It proved far less important and, thanks to the weather, watchable than most anticipated. Michigan State and a drama-free second half put a damper on Ohio State vs. Michigan (6 votes). The Iron Bowl and Alabama vs. Georgia were not that important. Michigan State vs. Ohio State was important. Michigan State vs. Oregon was, then wasn’t, then was again.
Hot Seat
Respondents were spot on with the coaching hot seat. The three top vote getters for first coach fired – Tim Beckman (9 votes), Mike London (6 votes), and Al Golden (4 votes) – were fired. Golden was gone before the season ended. Beckman did not make it to the season.
As for the best job available, respondents did not see USC or Georgia coming. Miami (11 votes) was thought to be the best job available. Multiple voters saw Virginia Tech and South Carolina opening. Three voters saw UCLA and two saw Notre Dame opening up, presumably because Jim Mora and Brian Kelly would go to the NFL. Both are still possible. Two media members felt it would be LSU, which nearly came to fruition.
Coaching Carousel
Respondents should have been more bullish on Jim Harbaugh (9-3) and Jim McElwain (10-2). 12 voters had Florida going 6-6. Nine had Michigan going 7-5. Only one media member had either winning more than eight games.
Six voters thought this was Steve Spurrier’s last season. 18 thought the HBC would stay two to three more years.
New Years Eve
Worth remembering: 20 out of 27 media members disliked or strongly disliked playoff games on New Years Eve. Only two viewed it positively.