The SEC Is Better, But The Big Ten Is Closing The Gap

The 2015 regular season is over. The 2015 bowl season has yet to begin. For the brief lull between, full blown discussion season returns. One topic that has emerged: which is the best conference, the SEC or the B1G?

Clay Travis attacked the question with hypothetical point spreads. Lining teams up 1-14, the SEC team would be favored in 10-12 of those matchups. We’ll take a different approach, looking at what conference teams did this year instead of what they would do.

We ranked SEC and B1G teams using Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System numbers as a rough measure. Schedule strength and victory margin. Who you beat and by how much you beat them. Simple. Here’s how that played out 1-14.

(1) Alabama (21.30) vs. Ohio State (20.62)
(2) LSU (12.93) vs. Michigan State (17.18)
(3) Tennessee (12.46) vs. Michigan (15.42)
(4) Ole Miss (12.13) vs. Iowa (12.88)
(5) Mississippi State (11.20) vs. Wisconsin (10.61)
(6) Arkansas (10.87) vs. Northwestern (9.13)
(7) Florida (10.40) vs. Penn State (7.36)
(8) Texas A&M (9.02) vs. Nebraska (6.53)
(9) Georgia (7.84) vs. Indiana (3.36)
(10) Auburn (4.21) vs. Minnesota (2.26)
(11) Missouri (-0.16) vs. Illinois (1.92)
(12) South Carolina (-2.48) vs. Maryland (-1.17)
(13) Vanderbilt (-2.75) vs. Rutgers (-3.25)
(14) Kentucky (-4.75) vs. Purdue (-4.90)

The SEC wins nine of the 14 pairings. Though, five matchups (including four SEC wins) were within a point.

Perception starts at the top. 2015 saw a clear shift from 2014. The top four of the B1G was strong. The SEC had a clear dip below Alabama. Four B1G teams – Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa – finished Top 13 SRS, compared to two SEC teams, Alabama and LSU. In 2014, there were two B1G teams in the Top 17 (Ohio State, Michigan State). Five SEC West teams finished in the Top 12.

The SEC, however, remains the deeper conference. Penn State was Ohio State’s second best win. Per SRS the Nittany Lions would be the 10th best team in the SEC.

Looking at total SRS, the No. 1 SEC (7.30) edged the No. 2 B1G (7.02). But, that’s a huge change from 2014. Last year, the No. 1 SEC (10.80) crushed the No. 5 B1G (4.52). The significant point may not be whether the SEC is better than the B1G, but the fact this is even a worthwhile discussion.

What does this mean outside of the math? This may be a one-off down year for the SEC. The conference still has a strong recruiting advantage. Quarterback play will come back at some point.

But, the B1G prognosis is less bleak than it once seemed. The playoff has shifted the paradigm. Were we still under the BCS, Alabama plays Florida State in the title game last year. Alabama plays Clemson in the title game this year. The Southeast is ascendant. The B1G is still irrelevant. Instead, Ohio State is defending champ. Michigan State is a strong contender. The B1G is legit.

Coaching changes will be crucial for the B1G as well. Ohio State is at full capacity under Urban Meyer. Michigan State is having unprecedented success under Mark Dantonio. Michigan has work to do, but will be back with Jim Harbaugh. James Franklin, at least on paper, is rebuilding Penn State’s roster.

In the SEC, the picture is looking more ominous. Steve Spurrier retired. Georgia just changed coaches. Les Miles and Gus Malzahn are on the hot seat. Butch Jones has not proven himself at Tennessee. Kevin Sumlin is looking like a sexier Brady Hoke. If Nick Saban leaves to the NFL…

Demography favors (and will continue to favor) the South. We’re not approaching a world where top recruits are fleeing to the Rust Belt en masse and Purdue is pulling in Top 25 recruiting classes. But, recent developments will have a knock-on effect. A livelier B1G that can claim the Mid-Atlantic and keep its own talent at home could be much more competitive.

We tend to view the present as more natural and enduring than it is. The recent past was an apex for the SEC and a nadir for the B1G. The change we’re witnessing is a natural ebb and flow. The SEC has (and will have) clear advantages. The B1G is not better, but it appears to be on its way back.

Of course, if Alabama beats Michigan State by three touchdowns, the prevailing narrative will shift in the opposite direction.