Ben Simmons Isn't Going to the NCAA Tournament (Barring a Miracle), and That's Really Bad for College Basketball
By Jason McIntyre
Ben Simmons and LSU lost again Sunday night, this time to Houston 105-98. The defeat dropped the Tigers to 4-4 and if you want to project ahead for the remainder of the season, the Tigers will need a miracle to reach the NCAA Tournament.
We all need to be prepared for March Madness without Simmons, the most talented player in college basketball and the heavy favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.
And that’s terrible for college basketball.
November losses to Charleston and Houston have decimated LSU’s RPI. The Marquette loss wasn’t a bad one; NC State could be a bubble team come March, but more likely reaches the NIT. Before the Houston loss, LSU’s RPI was a woeful 210; after the defeat, it actually rose to 186, which tells you how weak the Tigers schedule has been.
This leaves Simmons basically two ways into get to the NCAA Tournament: Win the SEC Tournament (possible) or go at least 17-6 the rest of the way, but that would have to include wins over Kentucky (2), Texas A&M (2), Florida (2), Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Given what we’ve seen from the Tigers so far, that ain’t happening.
The rest of the non-conference schedule in December won’t help them much – even if LSU can win the next five games, which certainly isn’t a given. (Wake Forest is a Top 60 RPI team and has wins over Indiana, UCLA and Arkansas already.)
And it’s not like the SEC is strong. By late January/early February, the SEC will probably be around the 6th best conference per RPI – after the Big 12, Pac-12, ACC, Big 10 and probably the Big East – which will be put an extra emphasis on those two Kentucky showdowns (and that non-conference Oklahoma clash).
Over the weekend, RPI Forecast projected LSU to be a sub-.500 team and have no shot at the NCAA Tournament. It would need to be 20-11 to just get the RPI into the mid-50’s by season’s end. That’s usually outside the bubble territory.
The worst part about all this? If Ben Simmons can’t reach the NCAA Tournament – and other freshman stars with 1-and-done potential like Malik Newman (Mississippi State) and Jaylen Brown (Cal) are in the same boat – what’s that going to mean for future studs?
Don’t think Coach K and John Calipari and Tom Izzo aren’t keeping an eye on this.
Hey superstar recruit, I know you want to forge your own path at a school you grew up loving, but the reality is you’ve got to come to Kentucky/Kansas/Perennial Top 10 team if you want a shot at the Title.