NFL Musings, Week 14: Russell Wilson Surging; Andy Dalton's Injury and Khalil Mack's Sacks Shake Up AFC
By Jason Lisk
RUSSELL WILSON IS SMOKING IN DECEMBER … AGAIN
Russell Wilson is once again lighting it up as we get into December. Over the last four weeks, Wilson has been insane, as Marshawn Lynch has been sidelined with injury, as Jimmy Graham’s season came to an end, and now as he lost another running back in Thomas Rawls.
Here are Wilson’s numbers over the last four games: 75.4% completions, 1,171 passing yards (9.9 YPA), 16 TD, 0 INT.
That is ridiculous.
Seattle was struggling on offense earlier this year, and Wilson often struggled late in games when they had the lead, but would rarely move the ball. That’s a distant memory now as Seattle has surged to 8-5 and is now on track to play the NFC East champion (on the road, because of the dumb “division winners host regardless of record” rule).
It’s also nothing new for Wilson, who has gone from decent to other-worldly numbers as the calendar moves toward the new year. Here are his splits by month for his career, for all regular season games.
What is different is that Russell has been doing it from the pocket. One of the common thoughts on Wilson over the first three-plus seasons is that you need to keep him in the pocket and keep him from scrambling.
Yesterday, he had one rush attempt for six yards. That normally has not been a recipe for success. Here are Seattle’s points per game and winning percentage by number of Wilson rush attempts (not including yesterday).
He’s not going to win the MVP award. For the second half of the season, though, Wilson has again proven that it’s more than just the defense in Seattle. He now leads the league in passer rating. And no one will want to play Seattle in January.
THE TOP OF THE AFC GOT A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY
When Andy Dalton went down yesterday with a thumb injury, things took a decided turn in the AFC. That turn continued later in the afternoon when Khalil Mack had a dominant performance, sacking Brock Osweiler five times in the second half, as Oakland came back to beat Denver.
New England entered the day tied with both Cincinnati and Denver, and behind them on tiebreakers. They leave it in sole possession of first place in the conference.
Meanwhile, Kansas City survived against San Diego at home, by shutting down the battered Chargers’ offense and holding off a late heave from Rivers to Danny Woodhead in the corner of the end zone. The Jets rolled over the Tennessee Titans at home. And the Steelers got that win at Cincinnati with Dalton out of the game.
That means an AFC that looked fairly static at the top just got a whole lot more interesting down the stretch run. Let’s set aside the AFC South pillow fight (more on that below). Denver and Cincinnati both left the door open for Kansas City and Pittsburgh to win the division with losses.
Thanks to Denver’s divisional loss to Oakland, Kansas City would win a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Denver. The Chiefs play at Baltimore, Cleveland, and Oakland at home to close and will be heavily favored in all three. That means Denver is likely to need two wins. They go to Pittsburgh, and then host Cincinnati over the next two weeks, before closing with the Chargers. The offense, while not turning it over like Manning was doing, is still anemic.
Cincinnati travels to San Francisco in A.J. McCarron’s first career start, before that Denver game. Cincinnati’s in slightly better shape on tiebreakers. They win that Baltimore finale, regardless of how they finish in the next two, and they win the division (remember, Pittsburgh lost that overtime home game to Baltimore earlier this year).
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh would hold the tiebreaker over the Jets if both finish at 11-5 by winning out. The Jets might technically have a slim mathematical chance of winning the East, but even assuming they win out and the Patriots lose out, New England almost certainly wins the Strength of Victory tiebreaker.
We are down to three teams for two spots. But now, two of those teams can actually catch the teams that seemed to have an insurmountable lead for a division title.
THE PANTHERS ARE GETTING BETTER, AND THAT’S SCARY
The Carolina Panthers are getting better and better as the season goes on. Yes, a team that is already 13-0 is still peaking. The Panthers emasculated the sinking Falcons yesterday, taking victory photos on the sideline.
Cam Newton is out here just dealing and “just having fun out there.” Surely, he is now as beloved as Brett Favre. The Panthers just jumped to first in points scored in the entire league (I’ll delve into that and more in a statistical look at Newton’s MVP case, separately this week).
You want evidence of just how much the Panthers have improved while still winning? Here’s a breakdown of their schedule and performance this year, as time progressed.
The hardest part of the schedule was in the middle of these 13 games, when they went to Seattle and played Green Bay. The most recent stretch is similar to the opening month before the bye, in terms of quality of opponent. However, they have simply destroyed those teams recently.
If anything, this understates the difference in performance. The Panthers got Dallas in one of the few games with Romo. They played the Saints with Brees recently, while the first meeting, Brees missed. They played against the Colts with Luck.
HOUSTON AND INDIANAPOLIS HOPE TO PUT AFC SOUTH RACE TO MERCIFUL END
Indianapolis lost back-to-back games by 35 points. This week, it was to Jacksonville, and not at Pittsburgh. Houston was flat against New England, and Brian Hoyer got beaten up. This would appear to set up a showdown for the division this week in Indianapolis–a showdown no one really wants to see. It is less compelling than a sequel to Independence Day.
Is Houston and Indianapolis a de facto game for the division title? Not entirely, though the winner will have a huge edge. Jacksonville is lurking behind both after that drubbing of Indianapolis, sitting at 5-8. Jacksonville’s problem is tiebreakers. Even if they can win at Houston in week 17, they are in trouble on division record and would lose out at either 7-9 or 8-8 to the winner of this week’s game. The Jaguars will be rooting for a tie. I would say the odds of that are slim, but I’ve seen these two teams play. I’m not ruling it out.
Indianapolis would clinch the tiebreaker with a win this week, with the sweep. That would leave their magic number at 1 to eliminate Houston and Jacksonville (one win, or one more Houston loss and Jacksonville loss).
Houston is a bit more complicated. However, I believe that they would likely win the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Indianapolis, even if they dropped to 8-8 with a loss to Jacksonville. Houston has the win over Cincinnati, Indianapolis has the win over Denver, and for now, it’s the win over the Jets by Houston that is making the difference. So they would most likely be in the same situation, needing just one win or a loss by both the Colts and Jaguars.
Will Andrew Luck come back this week? And will Hoyer be able to play? Those will be key issues. Remember when everyone was talking about Hasselbeck continuing to start? Luck is the better option … if he is medically cleared. No one is drug testing Hasselbeck anymore.
Luck had played the much tougher schedule, and that masked some things … until the Colts went to Pittsburgh.
Once you adjust for the quality of opponents (remember, Luck played against Denver, Carolina, New England, and the Jets), the Colts have been over 6 points better per game when a (banged up) Luck started. That’s not surprising. The question is whether it’s worth it at this point to risk Luck coming back just to win a division at, hopefully, 8-8.
[photos via USA Today Sports Images]