NFL Musings, Week 16: Packers Offense Continues to Struggle, Seahawks and Steelers Show We Know Nothing

Just How Bad Has the Packers Offense Become?

Green Bay looked like a Super Bowl contender for the first month of the season. They were expected to be a Super Bowl contender coming into the season. I think there is still the expectation that they can be a dangerous opponent in the playoffs. For the last three months, though, we’ve seen pretty much every shred of evidence suggesting that they are not.

Here’s a chart showing the passing numbers by each 5 game stretch this year:

That’s quite a dropoff. For the year, Green Bay is averaging 5.9 Net Yards per Pass Attempt. Here’s a list of the playoff teams that have averaged under 6 yards per net pass attempt in the last five years. They went 8-13 in the postseason, with only the 2010 Jets advancing to the championship game from the wildcard round.

There’s a saying at the poker table, that if you look around and don’t know who the sucker is, it’s you. I think there’s this assumption that you want to play Washington in the playoffs, but I’m not so sure after watching the Packers get dismantled by Arizona, struggle for most of the game against Carolina, get throttled by the Denver defense, and come within a hail mary heave of getting swept by the Lions over the last half of the season that they shouldn’t be looking around the room wondering who the real sucker is.

Rodgers still doesn’t throw many interceptions, which puts the offense in better standing than other offenses that average about the same number of yards per attempt as Green Bay, like the Rams, Colts, and 49ers. But this isn’t a healthy offense at all. Green Bay is 24th in yards this year. The last time the Packers were outside the top 20 in yards on offense? 1991.

The year before the Favre-Rodgers run of success began.

Seattle and Pittsburgh Show We Know Nothing

After talking about Green Bay’s struggles and what they could mean for the postseason, I’m going to switch gears. The Giants in 2007 and 2011 happened, for example, so just getting into the tournament matters.

Yesterday, there were three big upsets, as I detailed in my playoff breakdown.

Carolina lost the undefeated season, and two other teams that were being talked about as being the hottest and most dangerous in the NFL went out and laid an egg as a large favorite. Seattle’s loss is a bit more palatable. Seattle had just clinched another playoff appearance. They weren’t catching the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. They knew they would be going on the road in a couple of weeks, at either Washington or the NFC North winner (where they had played both teams already this season).

A letdown was somewhat understandable, if surprising with how hot Russell Wilson has been. Seattle came out flat, the Rams scored on an early fumble return TD, and built a quick lead. They still held St. Louis to 207 total yards and 14 first downs.

Pittsburgh’s loss to Baltimore was stunning, other than it being a rivalry game against a pretty good coach. Baltimore was starting Ryan Mallett, cast off from Houston after frequent misjudgments, as a measure of last resort after having gone down the Jimmy Clausen expressway. The pass defense of the Ravens hasn’t been particularly stout, and the Steelers passing game has been rolling.

Roethlisberger threw no touchdowns, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant combined for 67 receiving yards, and the Steelers only managed just over 300 total yards at Baltimore in what was an almost must-win game. Now, they may miss the tournament. They need help in the form of a Jets loss at Buffalo (or two Denver losses).

Can We Have an Honest Talk Now? Carolina Has Not Been the Best Team This Year

Carolina was undefeated. They matched 14-0 record of the 1972 Dolphins in the regular season, before succumbing to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. So long as a team hasn’t lost on the field, we talk in reverent tones and believe them to be possessing of something above and beyond. Forget the hypotheticals. They. Don’t. Lose.

Except it happens every year, eventually. Even the year that the 1972 Dolphins now wear proudly as the lone team to accomplish the feat, they played a very easy schedule and were so clearly recognized as the best team of all-time that they were a slight underdog in the Super Bowl.

And now, we can have an assessment of where Carolina ranks, not just historically, but this year. This is a team that has overachieved on offense thanks to the efforts of Cam Newton, like this run from yesterday.

It’s a very good defense personnel wise, and ranks second in pass defense, although teams have been able to score on them late in some games (among the 12 teams in playoff position, they are 9th in points allowed). Up until the fourth quarter of the Giants game and into the Atlanta game, they had been peaking as the season went on.

The Panthers also played a very easy schedule. According to the simple rating system (SRS, which just takes point difference and opponent strength of schedule), the NFC has been very imbalanced this year, and it just so happens that the two halves have been separated. Seven of the top 8 teams in the NFC have been from the West/North, with Carolina the only exception (in place of San Francisco). If you doubt that, the other seven teams in the East/South went only 3-11 against the North/West teams, with an average margin of -9.4 points. Throw in that the AFC games came against the South, easily the easiest draw in the AFC, and Carolina played a much easier schedule than other top contenders.

They are now only 7th in the SRS, and were 6th in the Football Outsiders rankings before last week’s loss. Compared to other teams that have won 14 or more games since 1978, they are the 5th lowest in SRS ranking. Here are the other 14+ win teams to have a SRS ranking below +8.0 points:

In comparison, the other 20 teams who won 14 or more games won nine Super Bowl titles and had 13 appearances.

[photos via USA Today Sports Images]