The Packers are Now Favored at Washington, Here Are Some Reasons Why
By Jason Lisk
The Green Bay Packers have gone 4-6 over the last ten games, and one of those wins came via an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary bomb at Detroit. They’ve just lost the last two games, to two other playoff teams, by scoring 21 points total. The offense has been going backward for most of that stretch. Green Bay is 31st in the league in net yards per pass attempt on offense, right behind the Rams, 49ers, and Browns.
Washington, meanwhile, has been surging over that same stretch. They have won 7 of the last 10 games, including a four-game winning streak to surge to a playoff spot. Kirk Cousins had his famous “you like that!” moment after the Tampa Bay win. Including that game, he has thrown for 23 touchdown passes and had only 3 interceptions, after being the most frequent interception-thrower (on a rate basis) since the start of his career, through week 6.
Even if we set aside the “Packers are a public team” and “people are confident in Aaron Rodgers” factors, there are reasons that the Packers have now joined the other three road teams in being favored this weekend. (And for what it’s worth, I think the Packers being so publicly popular is playing into negativity on them, finally, if anything).
In going back through my picks against the spread on the year, I have been pretty bearish on the Packers for most of the year. I’ve picked against them frequently and am 9-1 against the spread in games involving the Packers, only picking them to cover against Minnesota (in the first game on the road) and against Dallas. (You can see all of our season picks and preview podcasts under the Pigsplosion tag).
But I’m going to reverse that and say that I was leaning Packers even before this shift in the line. Here are some reasons:
1) Hotness and Coldness may be things people believe in, but it hasn’t worked out that way in the postseason lately.
I wrote about that already this week here. The coldest teams entering the postseason have a slightly better record than the hottest teams. More of them have actually won Super Bowls–coming from the Wildcard round. And while the records are similar, the against the spread marks are vastly different. The COLD teams were 30-17 ATS in the postseason; the HOT teams were 16-26-1.
2) Vastly Different Schedules, and the North/West Teams Have Been Way Stronger
Washington played in the NFC East. Green Bay played in the NFC North. Not only that, but Washington played against the NFC South, which had one powerhouse team in Carolina. Green Bay played against Arizona and Seattle, plus a pretty good defensive team in St. Louis.
The NFC East/South teams went 5-11 versus the NFC North/West teams this year, with an average point differential of 7.5 points per game in favor of the North/West. That’s sizable. There’s a pretty good argument that 6 of the best 8 teams in the NFC were from the North and West divisions this year, and that a team like Detroit might be in the postseason if they were in the East instead.
If we look at common opponents, the Packers are 3-2 and +31 against the Bears, Rams, Cowboys, and Panthers. Washington is 3-2 and -3 against the same teams (and they doubled up against the Romo-less Cowboys, easily the worst of that group).
3) The Schedule Hides that These Teams Have Been More Similar Over the Last Ten Games
Yes, Green Bay has gone 4-6. Half of their games have been against teams currently alive in the playoffs and two others were against Detroit, who were playing like a playoff team after an 0-5 start.
Washington played two playoff teams over that span. They lost to both New England and Carolina in non-competitive fashion.
Add up the margins and the opponent power ratings, and you have the Packers getting outscored by 1.8 points on average, against a schedule 2.9 points above average. That equates to the Packers being 1.1 points over average over the last ten.
Do the same for Washington, and you get +3.0 per game, against a schedule 2.25 worse than average. That equals Washington being 0.75 over average the last ten.
Over the last two, Washington has been better. Over the last ten, the Packers have, slightly, once you account for the vastly different schedules. And over the full season, Green Bay has been 7.2 points better than Washington.
4) Washington’s Pass Defense is Easily the Worst in the Postseason
Washington is 26th in Net Yards per Attempt allowed. Pittsburgh (17th) is the only other playoff team outside the top 12 in that pass defense category. That has come against a pass defense schedule that has not been particularly challenging. Of course, they are even worse when playing top passers. The best passing offense they’ve played over the last 5 games is Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor, who averaged 8.7 yards per attempt.
Green Bay’s defense, meanwhile, will be the best that Kirk Cousins has faced in a long time. Against other top 12 defenses this year, Cousins is averaging 5.5 yards per attempt, 4.8 net yards per attempt, and thrown 3 TD and 4 INT in 3 games. Is he hot? Or has a played a much better schedule than Aaron Rodgers?