Can Clemson Beat Alabama?

The National Championship game has arrived, almost. Clemson is the No. 1 seed. But, the Tigers are a (+6.5) underdog against Alabama. We’re sure that fact will be on some metaphorical, purple and orange bulletin boards.

Alabama obliterated Michigan State 38-0 in the playoff semifinal. The Tide left a few opponents broken in their wake to get there. Nick Saban has been here before, multiple times. Can Clemson buck that momentum and pull off the upset? It’s…possible.

Beating Alabama’s Defense

Alabama’s defense is outstanding. They are strong up front against the run. They seal the edges. Conventional running games accomplish little. Mobile quarterbacks get stuffed. Clemson dominated the line of scrimmage against Oklahoma, rushing Gallman and Watson 50 times for about 300 yards. The Tigers’ running game is stronger than Michigan State’s. But, that won’t work here.

What scant vulnerability Alabama has comes through the air. Play by play, the Tide are excellent, Top 10 in yards/attempt and passer rating against. But, they can surrender big plays. Alabama allowed 10 passes of 40-plus yards in 2015. Taking shots downfield is a Clemson staple. But, the Tigers don’t have quite the dynamic receiver corps from years past, and are shorthanded without suspended freshman Deon Cain.

Beating Alabama’s Offense

Derrick Henry won the Heisman. He’s large. He’s fast. He’s unreasonable for college linebackers. You won’t stop him every time. You must stop him some of the time. Clemson has been hit or miss against the run this year. The Tigers were stupendous last week against Oklahoma, limiting the Sooners to 67 yards on 33 carries. On the other side, the best back Clemson has faced, Dalvin Cook, went for 194 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown. The over/under for Derrick Henry yards is 145.5. Clemson needs to hit the under.

What Alabama does not do well is pass. Jake Coker had an excellent game against MSU. The Spartans have a below average pass defense. Coker has been very average much of the season (49th in yards/att, 33rd in passer rating). Clemson’s pass defense, statistically, is similar to Alabama. They allowed fewer than 50 percent completions. They rank Top 10-15 in yards/attempt allowed, passer rating, sacks, and tackles for loss. Though, Clemson has a similar vulnerability, long pass plays. Clemson gave up 11 passes longer than 40 yards.

Because the Tide can’t pass, they aren’t efficient driving down the field (96th in 3rd down conversions). If Clemson can mitigate the explosions, they can keep things within range. But, that’s an if. Whether Shaq Lawson plays and at what percent may be critical.

Unorthodox Touchdowns

Alabama has been lethal generating points from defense and special teams, with nine total touchdowns. Cyrus Jones has taken four punts back for six on the season, including one against Michigan State. Four of the Tide’s 18 interceptions have been taken back for six as well.

Clemson has been solid limiting punt returns, in a small sample. Only one of the 15 they’ve faced has gone longer than 20 yards. Deshaun Watson will through the odd interception though. He had 12 on the season, and five in his last five games. The Tigers cannot let Alabama pull away without moving the ball down the field.

But Alabama Has Been Beaten…

Yes, Ole Miss vanquished the mighty Crimson Tide 43-37 earlier this season. There’s not much of an Alabama-beating formula to gleam from that. Clemson may be in a good place if Alabama spots them five turnovers (four scoring drives starting in their own half) and if the Tigers capitalize on some stupid good fortune. We suspect that won’t be the case Monday night.

So, Can Clemson Do It?

There’s a reason Alabama is favored here. They can play well and win. Clemson has to play perfectly. They must hold their own on both lines. Their shots down field need to hit. They have to limit Alabama’s big plays. They have to win the turnover battle. It’s a tough ask, but not an impossible one. Everything has been coming up Dabo so far this season. But, we’re taking the Tide and the Points.

[USA Today Sports]