Predicting the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2016
By Jason Lisk
The Hall of Fame selectors will be releasing their decision in a few hours for the 2016 Pro Football Hall of Fame class. Here are my thoughts on what I would do, and what my guess is on what the actual selections will be.
The fifteen modern era finalists are as follows: Brett Favre (1st year), Terrell Owens (1st year), Alan Faneca (1st year), Edgerrin James, Kurt Warner, Orlando Pace, Marvin Harrison, John Lynch, Morten Andersen, Tony Dungy, Steve Atwater, Terrell Davis, Kevin Greene, Joe Jacoby, and Don Coryell.
Of those, a max of five can be selected. In addition, Ken Stabler and Dick Stanfel are senior candidates, and Eddie DeBartolo, Jr. is a contributor/owner candidate.
It’s a strong group at the top, with almost half of the group being in their first three years of eligibility, most of whom have been past finalists already if they aren’t in their first year of eligibility.
Brett Favre is an absolute lock. Of the other two first year guys, both should be locks as well, though I think for different reasons, they might not get selected this time around. The second year guys and Marvin Harrison are all strong candidates as well. I think there’s a pretty good argument that some of Warner, Pace, Harrison and James (who is the only first-time finalist of the group) should have been selected last year but were bypassed due to politics.
As an aside, in looking at comparable players, Edgerrin James has the second-highest set of comparables in the HOF, behind Favre. I don’t think he is perceived that way, and I don’t think he will be selected this year. But his career numbers, longevity, total yards and touchdowns are all almost identical to Eric Dickerson and Thurman Thomas.
Of the other guys on the ballot, Tony Dungy will receive plenty of support. I struggle to compare a coach to a great player. John Lynch has been a finalist for several years, but his career is very comparable to Steve Atwater, who is now a finalist for the first time. Morten Andersen is a finalist again, but I don’t see a kicker going ahead of this deep class.
Kevin Greene has been a finalist now five straight times. He feels like that guy who is due when it comes to the behind closed doors voting at the HOF selections. Terrell Davis is a finalist for the second straight year. Joe Jacoby, meanwhile, appears as the finalist for the first time in his 18 years of eligibility. If he were selected, he would join Bob St. Clair as the only offensive lineman with less than 3 all pro selections who is in the Hall of Fame, and played part of his career after 1960. I would be stunned if he was one of the five.
Here are my predictions:
Brett Favre in as a lock. Last year’s class saw Dungy, Harrison, Greene, Warner, and Pace just miss out. I think that Terrell Owens should be an easy choice, but I think Marvin Harrison will go in ahead of him as a guy who has been close and waited behind Andre Reed and Tim Brown. I think Kevin Greene gets selected–enough people have gotten him close in the past. I don’t think both Rams’ greats–Warner and Pace–are going in the same class. I think Warner should go in but my guess is he waits while Orlando Pace gets in. And I think Tony Dungy came close enough that he will round out the class.
My personal selections would be Favre/Warner/Owens/Harrison/Pace, with Faneca, Terrell Davis, and Edgerrin James right after. But that’s irrespective of position and politics. I don’t think you are getting two wide receivers and two quarterbacks.