Matt Forte Should Be an Attractive Option for a Contender, For the Next Two Years

Matt Forte announced that he would not be back in Chicago. While the decision is understandable from Chicago’s perspective–a replacement emerged in Jeremy Langford, they are needing to rebuild, and probably are a year away if they use the savings and cap room wisely–I’m of the belief that Matt Forte can be a very good free agent acquisition.

Earlier, Jason McIntyre said of Forte’s departure that “one could argue it was the worst season of his career.” That’s the opposite of damning with faint praise–perhaps praising with faint damning then? It was his lowest total by yards from scrimmage, as he finished with 1,287 yards. He did that despite missing three games with injury, and being limited and platooning in others. That was still good for seventh overall among running backs. That’s right, his worst year to date is still almost 100 yards per game from scrimmage.

He’s probably one of the most underrated backs recently, because when I tell you the comparable players by yards, you will probably blanche. He’s also 9th all-time in total yards between ages 26 and 30, going back to 1960, on a list surrounded by Hall of Famers and near-Hall of Famers.

I used the yardage totals both rushing and receiving from ages 26 to 30 to whip up a quick list of his comparables, and see how they performed going forward. Here are the most comparable players through age 30:

Those comparables had almost identical total yards, while Forte skews most toward the receiving back end of things. Most of those backs continued to be productive at age 31. Tomlinson, for example, moved to the Jets at age 31, and he appeared more broken down than Forte at age 30. Eddie George was the worst of the group, fading away in Dallas, but he was a power back who had a ton of carries.

I know there’s this belief that running backs are risky after turning 30. That may generally be true, but every running back is a risk. The guys who have been the best at gaining yards generally stayed productive longer.

Here’s a comparison between what Forte’s comparables did at ages 31 and 32, compared to what the average first round pick and second round pick has done in the first two years, over the last decade. [all data from pro-football-reference.com]

Now, first round picks are more valuable overall because a) they are cheaper, and b) they are cost-controlled for a couple more years, entering prime. But there’s a pretty good argument that you would rather have Forte than investing in a second round pick and hoping he turns out to be good, if you are a contender with a shorter window.

And a team doesn’t have to give up any draft picks for Forte. It’s just a matter of having the cap space and an opportunity. Here are some teams that I think should give him a look, given their situation.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Veterans like to go to teams within the division, to play against the team that let them go. The Packers haven’t traditionally been players in free agency, but this is an offense that could really use a high-level receiving back, which I think Forte can continue to be. Do you trust Eddie Lacy to be a workhorse and get in shape, and want to rely on that? James Starks is almost as old as Forte, and not nearly as productive. I’d be placing the call if I were Green Bay.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: They signed Frank Gore last year. But he turns 33, two years older, and Andrew Luck returns from injury. I think Forte would add an element to this offense and help Luck tremendously. Gore should be getting maybe 6-8 carries by next year and Forte could be the lead portion of a platoon. There isn’t anything else in the fold.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The C.J. Spiller experiment didn’t work; the coaching staff had no faith in him even as injuries mounted. Mark Ingram is there as the “between the tackles” back, and Forte would thrive in a Drew Brees’ offense. If the Saints are going down the road of retaining Payton and extending Brees, then the window is short. Forte is from New Orleans (playing at Tulane) and would thrive with Brees.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: How confident are they that Dion Lewis can come back from injury and play as well as he was at the start of last year? This was a team that had nothing at RB by the end of the year, and it showed. They successfully dipped into the veteran pool a decade ago in taking Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati. Forte would seem a very Patriots move, and Lewis could still get plenty of opportunities without relying on him exclusively.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Marshawn Lynch appears to have retired. Thomas Rawls was a revelation. Rawls and Lynch are more similar. Forte would be a complement and give Russell Wilson a more-heavily used version of the role Fred Jackson played last year.

I could make an argument even for teams that appear to be further away, like Tennessee, to bring in a veteran back to help their young starter. But for Forte, I think he has a great opportunity.