NCAA Tournament: 16 Teams Have Clinched a Spot, 9 More Can Join Them This Weekend
By Jason Lisk
We are entering the penultimate regular season weekend of college basketball. Most major conference teams have three games to play before their conference tournaments begin. There is no official clinching scenario like with a professional league, with magic numbers and official dates where a playoff spot is clinched. Officially, teams do not know until Selection Sunday. That said, as a practical matter, plenty of teams have already done enough to get into the tournament, even if they don’t win another game. Kansas, for example, is not missing out on the tournament even if they lose all their remaining games and finish 24-8.
But where is the line? Here are the teams (in alphabetical order) that I believe are in the tournament no matter what. I have sixteen that are in, and only playing for seeding, over the last few games.
Duke
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maryland
Miami-FL
Michigan State
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Oregon
Utah
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Xavier
Several other teams barely missed the cut. Some of them might still be in if they were to lose all remaining games, but to be safe, I’m calling these the teams that can basically wrap up a spot with a win this weekend.
Arizona
Yes, Arizona has climbed as high as 9th in the polls before the loss at Colorado. Still, they are only 28th in the RPI, and have gone 1-5 against teams likely in the field at this point. I can’t fully guarantee that they get in by losing all remaining games and having a woeful record against tourney teams. Win at Utah or versus California in the next two would confirm it.
Baylor
Baylor is 19-8, 9-6 in conference. Losing out would leave them at .500, and an opening loss in a Big 12 tourney game would put them at 19-12. However, getting above .500 in conference play and to 20 wins should clinch it. Particularly if that win is against either Oklahoma or West Virginia (though just winning at TCU should do it).
California
The Bears have won six in a row to jump to 10-5 in conference. A home win over USC on Sunday should be enough to lock them into the field and move them even closer to a top 5 seed.
Dayton
Dayton hasn’t been on good form over the last three games. The RPI is good enough to almost be considered a lock, and we know the committee will value that. A win over Rhode Island at home would get them to 13 wins in the A-10, and 23 overall, which should be enough to lock it in, though a continued slide could affect seeding quite a bit.
Iowa State
I almost put Iowa State in the already locked-in teams. However, they have two home games that they should win. Lose both of those, to Kansas State and Oklahoma State, then lose at Kansas and a tough matchup in Big 12 to end on a 5-game losing streak and fail to get to 20 wins, all bets are off. Of course, winning on Saturday against the Wildcats would put an end to that and should confirm the spot.
Notre Dame
Winning at Florida State this weekend or versus Miami would put them at 11 wins in the ACC and should clinch a tournament spot regardless of further results.
Purdue
Purdue has two good tournament-building resumé games against Maryland and Wisconsin and both are at home. They also go to Nebraska in between. They present opportunities, but if they were to lose everyone, I cannot guarantee they are in … yet. Beat Maryland on Saturday and it’s all about seeding for the rest of the way.
Texas
Texas has a make-or-break week when it comes to which way their tournament positioning goes, with home games against Oklahoma and Kansas, before closing at Oklahoma State. Win one of those two and they are assuredly in, win both and they could jump dramatically in the seeding list. Close 0-3? Still some work to do in the Big 12 Tournament.
Texas Tech
They’ve got two tough games, at Kansas and at West Virginia, before the home finale against Kansas State. Winning one of them would assure a .500 record in Big 12 play, and assure them a top 30 RPI ranking. It won’t be easy but if they do it they are in.
In addition, the following five teams just missed my cut of “win one and in.” I think they are close, but I couldn’t say with clear certainty that all it takes is one more: Saint Joseph’s, Texas A&M, USC, Colorado, and Wisconsin.
That adds up to 30 teams if we include those 5, which should comprise the top 7 seed lines (plus two) entering the weekend–though the results will certainly change a few of those slots. I’ll have my full bracket projections up Sunday night.
[photos via USA Today Sports Images]