Jeff Fisher, Sam Bradford, and the High Cost of Fearing the Unknown
By Jason Lisk
The Rams are talking about an extension with Jeff Fisher. The Eagles are talking contract offer with Sam Bradford on the opposite side of the country. Two different positions, two different situations, but a symptom of the same problem.
Jeff Fisher and Sam Bradford both show the high cost of fearing the unknown. Fisher is going into the last year of his contract. He would be the dreaded “lame duck.” Fisher has built a career out of being reliable, solid, looking the part. His teams are not going to be terrible. They are also, generally, going to have flaws that keep them from being great. Some of that is circumstance, but some of it is philosophy. In half of Jeff Fisher’s 20 seasons, he has finished within one result of a .500 record. That’s more than any other coach since 1960.
He hasn’t won a playoff game since 2003. He hasn’t coached a team to the playoffs since 2008.
So keeping Fisher is safe. Extending him costs money, but is the safe play. My gosh, what happens if the Rams explode and are a Super Bowl contender? Then he’s a free agent. Of course, whoever convinced teams that coaches couldn’t possibly coach through the end of their contracts deserves a raise. For every disaster scenario that one could come up with where a coach turned it around and stuck it to the owner who wouldn’t pay him beyond his contract, you can find dozens where the team simply bit the bullet, ate a bunch of money, and fired the guy soon thereafter.
Then, there’s Bradford. According to a recent report, the Eagles were trying to get him signed, and Adam Schefter just announced that he has signed a 2-year deal with Philadelphia for $18 million per year, $26 million guaranteed (we await how much of that is injury-only before next offseason, versus actually guaranteed).
Bradford is a solid, if uninspiring option. In the five seasons that he has finished among the top 32 passers in attempts (he missed most of 2014), here are his rankings in adjusted net yards per attempt: 28, 30, 19, 14, 26. That’s an average of 23.4. He’s not the worst option. You are paying a steep price for a baseline of being “not in the top tier.”
Yet, we see teams willing to pay that rather than risk uncertainty, not just with Bradford. New coach Doug Pederson has mentioned liking Chase Daniel, the undersized quarterback who backed up in Kansas City the last few years. No one is saying the same price the choice would be the same, but if the choice is Daniel at $5 million, with future options open, or Bradford at $18 million per year over the next two seasons, then you are paying a premium.
We’ve seen some teams struggle when turning to the unknown or the draft. We’ve also seen the Seahawks nab Russell Wilson (after also signing Matt Flynn), we’ve seen the Bills get unproven Tyrod Taylor on the cheap, we’ve seen the Jets turn things around with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The fear of the unknown can be very expensive. Being average can be quite lucrative and rewarding. Just ask Jeff Fisher and Sam Bradford.