NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown: Weighing What Teams Like Syracuse and Michigan Need to Do
By Jason Lisk
Last week, I broke down teams that I thought had already clinched a berth into the Field of 68, and those that I thought could do so over the weekend.
In addition to the 16 I previously listed, the following teams clinched their spots and I believe are in no matter what happens down the stretch:
Texas, Dayton, Iowa State, Purdue, Baylor, California, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, and Texas A&M.
That gets us to 25 teams in, from 7 conferences. That’s exactly half of the at-large bids accounted for (18) if we assume auto-bids for 7 of those teams.
NEAR-LOCKS:
These teams might be in already also: Arizona, Saint Joseph’s, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and Colorado. I’m not 100% sold in a worst-case scenario, but simply not losing every remaining game should do it.
That gets us to 30 teams identified, with 23 potential at-larges. That leaves about 13 at-large slots left.
ONE WIN AWAY:
Arkansas-Little Rock: If they finish the regular season with a win at Appalachian State on Thursday, at 28-3 (26-3 against D-I) I don’t see how they miss out based on the rest of this field, regardless of another loss in the conference tourney. They will be in the top 40 RPI. They will have beaten both Tulsa and San Diego State, two true bubble teams, in road/neutral games. I think the only question is whether they win the auto bid, or take an at-large and reduce the bubble, and whether they win out to get a pretty good seed (8/9).
Oregon State: RPI has climbed inside the top 30. They play the Los Angeles double-header this week, so a victory is no gimme. If they can win one, they should be in good shape, with 6 wins–and maybe 7, against tourney teams. Lose both and they are still very much on the bubble heading to Las Vegas, after dropping to an 8-10 conference finish.
Vanderbilt: Win at Texas A&M, and they are in. Will have won 7 of 8, added a top road win, and climbed to 20 wins entering the SEC tournament.
That takes three more off, and leaves 10-11 spots, depending on if Arkansas-Little Rock gets an auto bid or not …
ONE WIN, and IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
USC: host both Oregon schools. Have lost 5 of 6, but a win over either of those should be enough to keep them above the bump.
St. Bonaventure: a win at St. Joseph’s would give them the season sweep. Have won 8 of 9, climbed inside the top 40 in RPI.
South Carolina: with games vs Georgia and at Arkansas, can’t afford a winless week. Getting to 24-7 should be enough, though.
Three more off in that group gets us to 7-8 spots remaining.
PROBABLY NEED TWO WINS TO FEEL COMPLETELY SAFE
Syracuse: A win at Florida State might be enough. A quarterfinal win (in what is likely an 8/9 or 7/10 matchup with Clemson, Pitt, or Virginia Tech) should definitely do it. Lose both and very much in trouble.
Providence: They’ve lost 5 of 7. Home game against Creighton, at St. John’s this week. They will be in decent shape with a win. Will seal it with two of them.
Cincinnati: Beating SMU alone is probably enough. If they beat Houston and lose to SMU, I think they just need to avoid a bad loss in the American Conference quarters and advance to the semis.
Connecticut: If they beat SMU on the road, they surge back up and move into a pretty good spot. Lose that one and finish 1-1, and I think they need to win a likely 4 vs 5 matchup against one of the other top American teams.
Michigan: Get Iowa at home to close, and need it. Probably need to avoid a bad loss in a 8/9 type matchup against Northwestern or Penn State. Win those two and I think they’ve set their case. If they lose at home to Iowa, likely need to get a good result and pull an upset against a top team in the Big Ten tourney.
Taking those 5 off leaves us 2-3 remaining at-large spots.
WILDCARDS OUTSIDE MAJOR CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
Wichita State: How will the committee view the Shockers if they do not win the MVC tournament title? They’ve climbed to 7th in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings after largely dominating the Missouri Valley. They’ve gone 21-3 after a 2-4 start, largely without Fred Van Vleet. The RPI is right around 40, and they have only one high quality win over a tourney team (Utah). My gut is they don’t have to win it, but they certainly can’t lose in the quarters and probably need to beat Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois in the semis.
Valparaiso: They went out and scheduled an Oregon doubleheader, winning at Oregon State and losing in competitive fashion to Oregon. I could see them in the discussion for an at-large if they were to lose a final to Oakland.
St. Mary’s/Gonzaga: The West Coast Conference may get only one bid. The gut here is that Gonzaga must win the auto bid, after getting swept by St. Mary’s in the regular season. St. Mary’s would be very much on the bubble if they lost in the final to Gonzaga, at the mercy of big conference upsets that put bubble teams in, but potentially in the running for a First Four game.
Depending on how those tournaments go, that may eat up remaining spots or leave a couple open.
TEAMS TRULY RIGHT ON THE BUBBLE, NEED RESULTS
Pittsburgh: close with two road games fraught with danger, at Virginia Tech and at Georgia Tech. A likely matchup with Florida State or Georgia Tech again in the ACC Tournament. They may need another quality win, and probably can’t absorb more than one more loss before that happens.
Temple: Yes, the Owls are leading the American and will probably be the top seed. They also are sitting at 18-10 overall and outside the Top 50 in the RPI. The remaining games can only hurt them, home against Memphis, at Tulane, and then a quarterfinal game (South Florida?). Win all three of those and they are in the conversation of being in. Lose one this week and they have work to do–short of winning the entire tournament–in the American Conference.
Butler: Have opportunities this week, but can’t lose at home to Seton Hall and Marquette. Win both of those and may or may not need to win the quarterfinal matchup (Creighton? Providence?), lose one this week and definitely need good wins in the Big East tourney.
Tulsa: can’t lose at home to South Florida. Need to win the tournament opener, which should be against a decent team. May need another after that, depending on results of the teams above on this list.
VCU: If they win out and beat Dayton on the road to finish 15-3, they will surge ahead teams. But, lose at Dayton, and they will be hanging on to only 3 wins against potential tourney teams (St. Joe, St. Bonaventure, and fellow bubbler George Washington). They need to get another good win, and the next chance if they miss beating Dayton is probably the A-10 semifinal.
George Washington: If they didn’t have the home win over Virginia, they wouldn’t even be in the conversation. But they do, so they need to be close enough for that to sway committee. Must beat Davidson to end the season. Then needs to get a good win in the quarterfinals. Do those things and they are in that conversation.
Alabama: with games against Arkansas, at Georgia, and then in the SEC quarters against potentially one of those teams again, not sure they can afford a loss, and probably have to get to 20 wins (currently 17-11).
TEAMS THAT NEED BIG UPSETS, BUT COULD GET AT-LARGE WITH DEEP TOURNEY RUNS
Florida: In a tailspin, the Gators are only 2-11 against teams potentially in as at-larges. That won’t get it done. They need big wins, multiple big wins, in the SEC tourney.
Ohio State: have wins over Kentucky and Iowa and not much else. Need to add at least two big wins over top teams in the tournament or at Michigan State to close the year.
Florida State: IF they beat Syracuse at home, win an ACC opener, and then pull a big upset in the ACC tourney quarterfinal, they can get into the conversation short of winning the entire tournament. Lose to Syracuse at home to drop to 7-11 in conference, and they have no shot of an at-large.
LSU: They are only on this list because they play Kentucky on the road this weekend. Win that one, and they could get an at-large by also reaching the SEC final. Lose it, and it’s auto bid or bust.