Bracketology: What are the Chances of Teams Like Wichita State, Valparaiso, St. Mary's and Princeton of Getting At-Large Bids?

Wichita State is underway in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, surviving today and setting up a rematch with Northern Iowa in the semifinals, a team that beat them in Wichita this year. Are they a lock for the tournament even if they lose that contest? What about Valparaiso, a team that also appears to be tournament-worthy? Other teams that come from outside the traditional top leagues–or leagues whose current members have been part of college basketball’s elite (Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, Big East, American, Atlantic-10, and Mountain West) that have a shot at an at-large include St. Mary’s, Princeton, Arkansas-Little Rock, and Akron.

Here’s a quick comparison of teams that comprise the mid-major class (for example, I include Creighton and Butler before they joined the Big East, VCU before going to the Atlantic 10). These are the previous five seasons, and list all that fell between 25 and 55 in the RPI at the end of the season.

I highlighted those selected as at-larges, or that got auto bids and were seeded as an 11 seed or better, in dark red. The pink are those that got auto bids and were seeded as a 12 seed. This year’s candidates are in green.

There’s a clear relationship between RPI and being selected. Inside the top 40, mid-majors had a pretty good chance of selection. Outside of it, and the chances dropped.

Having Top 50 wins and a good record against the Top 100 were also key factors. Among the four to miss out entirely while being in the top 40 in the RPI, lack of Top 50 wins is noticeable. UAB in 2011 and Iona in 2012 were the only two to be selected as at-larges while having no top 50 wins, and those two were a combined 12-2 against the rest of the Top 100.

Of the 15 teams to get an at-large or be seeded 11 or better as an auto bid, 11 had a winning record against the Top 100, and another was .500 (VCU in 2011). If you want to best predict which ones have a chance, that’s a key indicator.

So, who has a chance?

Wichita State: They are a true wildcard. They are a veteran team with bona fides, though the committee will say the past plays no factor. They are rated highly by the Pomeroy ratings and have been winning a lot since a slow start. They got off to that slow start with one of their two stars injured.

But, the committee puts great weight on RPI and big wins. If they lose to Northern Iowa, the RPI would dip a bit closer to 50, they would have only one top 50 win (Utah), and would be 4-7 against the Top 100. That’s no lock. I would like to think they are closer to a 7 or 8 seed but we have seen the committee doesn’t tend to take Pomeroy into account (see Kentucky 2014 as an 8 seed).

Valparaiso: They won at Oregon State. They have a winning record (3-2) against the top 100. They would be right on the cutline and have a decent chance at an at-large as long as they don’t have a bad loss early.

Arkansas-Little Rock: I thought they could have virtually sealed a spot, then they went out and lost to one of the worst teams in their conference in Appalachian State to end the season. Can they absorb another loss? I guess it depends on how. Close in the title game, maybe.

They do have two Top 50 wins (Tulsa and San Diego State just barely in right now), and are 4-1 against the Top 100, two positive indicators for the types of teams that have gotten in. Those wins over Tulsa and San Diego State could play well in a bubble comparison with those teams.

St. Mary’s: They don’t have any top 50 wins. They do, though, have a 6-2 record against the Top 100, including a sweep of Gonzaga. I think St. Mary’s is likely in if they reach the West Coast final. The projected RPI– if they win the first two games but lose to Gonzaga/BYU in the final according to RPI Forecast–is still in the top 40. If they lose before then, though, they would see the RPI drop to the high-40’s, and be in trouble.

Those are the only four I see as having a decent at-large chance. Quick assessment of the others.

Princeton and Yale: A 1-5 record against top 100 is trouble for Princeton, and Yale is 1-4 against the Top 100. No similar comps with that kind of record. Must win Ivy League.

Akron: Outside chance, but with no top 50 wins, and any loss in the MAC tourney likely to drop the RPI outside the top 40, chances are slim of holding an at-large slot.

South Dakota State: Likewise don’t have any top 50 wins, and not enough top 100 wins to offset. A loss would drop RPI near 50.

Monmouth: Have multiple top 50 wins, but currently outside the Top 55 in the RPI, which would be historically low for an at-large from a smaller conference.