Bracketology: Syracuse Right on Edge, Wichita State Barely In For Now, American Conference Could Be Chaos
By Jason Lisk
Here are my projections heading into Sunday night, with all the major conference games done. ALL CAPS are teams that have clinched an auto bid. Italics are for designated projected auto bids at the moment.
The bubble is setting up to potentially be shallow, though Wichita State losing in the Missouri Valley tournament may have shrunk it, if the Shockers are selected. As I detailed Friday night, their profile (1 win against a top 50 team, RPI in the 40’s, losing record against Top 100) is no lock based on recent precedence, but they rate highly in Pomeroy’s rankings and largely have dominated the Missouri Valley after a slow start.
I do believe that if they survive, they will be sent to play in one of the Dayton games. That’s not without precedence. In both 2012 and 2015, BYU played in Dayton while having one top 50 win both years, and similar records to Wichita State against the top 100.
Of course, they are vulnerable to upsets and big wins in the major conference tournaments. Right now, I have the American Conference as being bubble central. I do believe Cincinnati sealed their spot with a win over SMU. Connecticut, Tulsa, and Temple are all among my final five teams in right now (along with Wichita State) and results in the American could swing things.
In addition, I have Pittsburgh (just in), Syracuse, Michigan, Florida and Florida State lurking and they all probably need to get wins. Syracuse and Pittsburgh will meet in the ACC tournament 8/9 matchup, and I think that’s a play-in game, at minimum. Syracuse closing by losing 4 of 5 and Pittsburgh going 0-2 this week at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech has moved both to that position. Michigan needs to beat Northwestern and most likely beat Indiana in the Big Ten tourney to get in. Florida State would need (at least) to beat Boston College and then Miami, and maybe more to be in the discussion. Florida would need to beat Arkansas and Kentucky to be in the discussion. George Washington would need to beat St. Joseph’s and then probably win the semifinal as well.
On the other hand, a couple of situations still lurk to reduce the bubble. Gonzaga is most likely out as an at-large, but St. Mary’s could still get a spot if they meet in the final and Gonzaga wins. In addition, Valparaiso would receive at-large consideration. Monmouth would have an outside chance as well if they don’t get the auto bid.