Leicester City Are Premier League Champions Barring Epic Collapse
By Ty Duffy
Arsenal and Tottenham drew 2-2 last Saturday. The winner on the day was Leicester City. The Foxes, aiming to become perhaps the biggest long-shot champion in sports history, now hold a five-point lead over Tottenham and eight-point lead over Arsenal entering the final nine matches. That lead could prove all but unassailable.
Here is a look at the teams’ remaining fixtures, with the opponents’ league standings.
Leicester City
Newcastle – H (19)
Crystal Palace – A (15)
Southampton – H (9)
Sunderland – A (17)
West Ham – H (5)
Swansea – H (16)
Manchester United – A (6)
Everton – H (12)
Chelsea – A (10)
Tottenham
Aston Villa – A (20)
Bournemouth – H (14)
Liverpool – A (7)
Manchester United – H (6)
Stoke City – A (8)
West Brom – H (11)
Chelsea – A (10)
Southampton – H (9)
Newcastle – A (19)
Arsenal
West Brom – H (11)
Everton – A (12)
Watford – H (13)
West Ham – A (5)
Crystal Palace – H (15)
Sunderland – A (17)
Norwich – H (18)
Manchester City – A (4)
Aston Villa – H (20)
Disregard Home/Away Splits: None of the three contenders has a strong home/away split looking at points per match and margin of victory. Leicester City has averaged 2.07 PPM at home and 2.07 PPM away. Their goal margin has been slightly better away from home (+ 0.64) vs. (+ 0.80).
Tottenham have been similar at home (1.93 PPM, + 1.00 GD) and away (1.86 PPM, + 0.86 GD). So have Arsenal at home (1.93 PPM, + 0.64 GD) and away ( 1.67PPM + 0.47 GD). Arsenal away matches tend to be higher scoring away (3.13 goals) vs. home (2.07 goals).
Rough Patches: Arsenal just went through their tough portion. They hosted Leicester City on Valentine’s Day. Then, they had road trips to Manchester United and Tottenham, with a Swansea sandwich. Tottenham have a tough-ish one coming up – Liverpool (A), Manchester United (H), Stoke City (A).
Leicester City have one as well. The fortunate (or unfortunate) thing is it is at the end of the season. They close the season with road trips to Manchester United and Chelsea, with Everton in between. Having to win the title on the road at Old Trafford or at Stamford Bridge may be tougher than it looks on paper. The pressure would ramp up.
But, the Foxes keep rolling, they may have the title wrapped up by then. They may well do so. They could, potentially, do that winning the next six matches. Four are at home. Four are against teams sitting at 15 or lower in the EPL table.
Extracurriculars: Leicester City has the advantage here. They are out of the FA Cup and did not play in Europe. Arsenal should be out of the Champions League, after losing 2-0 at home to Barcelona in the first leg. They could still be in the FA Cup (beating Hull on a replay). Spurs are out of the FA Cup, but have brutal Thursday turnarounds the longer they stay in the Europa League. After qualifying for the Round of 16 against Dortmund, that’s at least two more matches.
Arsenal Form: Arsenal need a perfect (or all but) run to the finish just to have a shot. That’s not inconceivable. Seven of their nine opponents left are in the bottom half of the table. But, the Gunners need a massive turnaround from recent form. They have just 10 points from their last nine matches in the league. They are winless in their last five matches since Valentine’s Day. Of course, five matches in the last 15 days (three EPL matches in 7 days last week) didn’t help them.
Projection: Leicester City should have this locked up. Arsenal (definitely) and Tottenham (likely) need an epic Foxes collapse. Projecting a conservative 18 points for Leicester City from the final matches…Arsenal would need to win all nine to get 27 points. Tottenham could drop a maximum of four points (presuming they maintain a goal difference advantage).
Could Leicester City suffer a devastating regression to the mean? It looks improbable. Though, in a Premier League season that could see Manchester City, Manchester United, and Chelsea finish outside the top four, don’t write anything off.