Brock Osweiler is Fool's Gold, Unlikely to Actually Collect $72 Million

Brock Osweiler just got paid, maybe. Well, he’ll at least collect whatever portion of that reported 4-year, $72 million contract is actually guaranteed, and likely the first two years worth of base salary. But it’s unlikely that Osweiler turns out to actually be a savior. It’s more likely that he joins names like Scott Mitchell, A.J. Feeley, and Kevin Kolb who moved onto other teams in their mid-twenties with limited starts before the move.

John Elway didn’t overpay for Osweiler. The Texans wanted him more.

I know that it was only 8 games (7 starts) this year, but Osweiler’s performance at age 25 wasn’t indicative of a future star. He happened to be on a very good team where he didn’t need to do much. His overall numbers weren’t horrible, his yards per attempt was near league-average. But when you combine his poor TD rate, his poor sack rate, and his below-average completion rate, you get a poor indicator of future quality.

I went through every quarterback who threw 300 passes at age 25. Here are the most similar to Brock Osweiler, using league-adjusted ratings in completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown and interception rate, and sack rate, as well as overall, and rushing production.

Here’s the list:

That group has averaged 23 starts from age 26 to 29. Only three of them (Dalton, Kramer, and O’Donnell) had above average seasons from age 26-29. Those three also happened to rate much higher in either completion rate, touchdown rate, or sack rate (or multiple categories).

The last time I said a player was “fool’s gold” was when I said that “Matt Flynn was Green and Fool’s Gold” for teams looking for a starter. Seattle signed him, then drafted Russell Wilson, so maybe Texans fans can hope that lightning strikes again in the draft.