Michigan State is the Biggest Opening Game Upset of All-Time, Considering Spartans Were a Title Favorite
By Jason Lisk
Is Michigan State the biggest opening round upset in NCAA Tournament history? It feels like it.
It is the eight #2 versus #15 upset in NCAA Tournament history. Here are all of them:
1991: Syracuse loses to Richmond
1993: Arizona loses to Santa Clara
1997: South Carolina loses to Coppin State
2001: Iowa State loses to Hampton
2012: Missouri loses to Norfolk State
2012: Duke loses to Lehigh
2013: Georgetown loses to Florida Gulf Coast
By point spread, Missouri being a 21 point favorite against Norfolk State is the largest modern upset. In contrast, Michigan State was somewhere between a 17 or 18 point favorite for this one. But that was because of the perception of Norfolk State as being more like a 16 seed. When we talk about perception and feel, this one certainly feels like a bigger upset, when it comes to the team knocked off.
Every 2/15 upset is a major upset and shocking. Here are some of the reasons this one feels the most shocking of all:
Michigan State was, if not the favorite, the co-favorite with Kansas. In fact, they were only behind Kansas in championship odds entering the tourney: They were ahead of #1 seeds North Carolina, Virginia, and Oregon. Most #2 seeds are not seen as the co-favorite to win the title (In fact, in one of my big pools, nearly half had Michigan State winning the title).
Michigan State had the presumptive National Player of the Year in Denzel Valentine. Among the other #2 seeds to lose, only Billy Owens (Syracuse) and Otto Porter (Georgetown) were first team All-Americans on those losers. Neither won Player of the Year (Larry Johnson in 1991; Trey Burke in 2013).
Michigan State has Tom Izzo. They were in the Final Four last year. They were in the Elite Eight the year before. They have made seven Final Four appearances with Tom Izzo.
The last time that Michigan State did not win an opening game, or for that matter advance to the Sweet 16, as a 5-seed or better was in 1995, to Weber State as a 3-seed. Jud Heathcote was the coach.
Over two-thirds of all bracket selections on ESPN this year had them in the Final Four. The only #2 seed that I think matched this in terms of expectations was maybe that very talented Arizona team that lost to Santa Clara and some guy named Steve Nash back in 1993. But this one feels like an even bigger shocker.