If U.S. Loses To Guatemala, Klinsmann And 2018 World Cup May Be Finished

The USMNT lost 2-0 to Guatemala, FIFA’s 95th ranked team, on Friday. It was the first American qualifying loss to Guatemala. It snapped a 21-match unbeaten streak. For the second cycle under Jurgen Klinsmann, the U.S. faces a must-win match to avoid getting dumped out of World Cup qualifying, before the Hex.

Klinsmann is coaching for his job in the return leg vs. Guatemala on Tuesday. Though, the ramifications of U.S. failure are so grave they will render that question almost irrelevant.

Here is how CONCACAF Group C looks with three matches to play.

Trinidad and Tobago 7 pts (+2)
Guatemala 6 pts (+5)
USA 4 pts (+3)
Saint Vincent & The Grenadines 0 pts (-10)

The back end of the fixture list is advantageous for the Americans. The U.S. plays the two tougher teams at home and should, come what may, be able to take three points away from Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

That said, this is a must win match. Losing all but eliminates the U.S. from the 2018 World Cup. Guatemala would be on 9 pts, probably moving to 12 in the final match against SV&G. Trinidad and Tobago, beating SV&G, would be on 10 pts. The U.S. would cap out at 10 pts.

Guatemala would be in. T&T would advance with any sort of result at home against Guatemala. The two teams conveniently drawing would send both through and increase both teams’ odds of qualifying for Russia with the U.S. out of the Hex.

A draw would leave the U.S. in a better, but still precarious spot. The U.S. would max out at a potential 11 points. T&T and Guatemala would be at 10, discounting their match against each other. Trinidad and Tobago would  be must-win for the U.S. to advance. A draw in the Guatemala/T&T match could send the three-team tie to goal difference.

The U.S. was in a near identical situation qualifying for 2014, after an away loss to Jamaica. They won the final three matches (with a late Eddie Johnson goal averting disaster against Antigua & Barbuda) to win the Hex. They also had to come from behind against Guatemala. It was not fun.

For the record, in the three cycles before Klinsmann, the U.S. had a 11-2-5 combined record at this stage of qualifying, outscoring opponents 41-9.

A loss would end Klinsmann’s tenure. Or, at least make that question not matter very much. The U.S. would be all but out of the Hex, out of the World Cup, and, depending on how one views the Gold Cup, not playing meaningful soccer, after this summer, until the 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign begins.

One would still favor the U.S. to muddle their way through here. Though, their recent form has been far from encouraging. Results have not been there with the Gold Cup, the Mexico playoff defeat, and the poor start to qualifying.

More broadly, we’ve yet to see the inspiring, positive soccer Klinsmann promised, or even much coherence. Klinsmann seems to be churning through tactics and recycling players match to match in a desperate attempt to find chemistry, rather than building it. His starting XI in Friday’s match, with multiple players out of position, left everyone befuddled.

Some would argue Klinsmann has taken over during an ebb in the U.S. talent level. But, that is an excuse during a World Cup. Guatemala was fielding 36-year-old Carlos Ruiz and one other MLS regular.

At some point, it becomes not a question of how things would get better with a coaching change but how things could possibly get worse. The U.S. is inconsistent up front, spotty at the back, doesn’t control the midfield, and Tim Howard is not what he once was.

We’ve cautioned against panicking, but, now is the time to panic. The U.S. has a penchant for getting out of tight situations with vital goals. That does not mean it will always happen.

How vital is Tuesday’s match? The first call up of 17-year-old Christian Pulisic, one of the top prospects in the sport, is an afterthought.