Leicester City May Struggle To Replicate Their Success
By Ty Duffy
Leicester City won the EPL title. The Foxes were 5,000-1 underdogs before the season started. They overturned the Premier League’s sclerotic world order. This was, perhaps, the greatest upset in sports league history, or the least probable. The natural question over the morning after’s Bloody Mary: will Leicester’s success be sustainable?
The first thing to note is the Premier League’s new TV deal, which goes into effect next year. The EPL will bring in more than $8 billion per year in TV revenue, dwarfing other European leagues. Chelsea earned about $144 million for winning the EPL last year. The 20th place team next year will make $145 million. The winner will earn more than $220 million. This will change many things.
The money will promote competition and parity within the league. Increased TV revenue will deaden the impact of marketing, in-stadium, and, at least for now, Champions League revenue. Those factors, which kept the top four intact year to year, will have less influence.
The money will exacerbate the Premier League’s financial advantage abroad. Under the present deal, 17 EPL clubs were in the Deloitte Money League Top 30. Moving forward, they will dominate further. The average Premier League club will eclipse pretty much everyone except Real Madrid, Barcelona, and PSG.
TV money will destabilize matters, opening the door for more Leicester City type teams to emerge. They won’t have players poached as quickly. They can poach quality players from other leagues. But, it will also make it much harder to maintain that success once attained.
Underdogs are always charming. But, Leicester City was no victory for the small, sustainable development model. The club is owned by a Thai billionaire. They spent a net $92 million in transfer fees the past two seasons. They may still be in trouble for allegedly using a shady marketing deal to mask financial losses. They were, in effect, Manchester City in miniature.
Leicester City were spending beyond their means. They will need to spend much of their $73.5 million windfall, just to maintain their squad. Their once unheralded players are in line for huge raises. Expect Leicester City to rank higher than 17th in the wage bill table. That presumes Leicester City will keep its star players.
Riyad Mahrez was once a $566,000 signing in the Champions League. The 25-year-old Algerian is now one of world soccer’s hottest commodities. He has been linked to Arsenal, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and PSG. He may not be looking to leave Leicester. But, some club should come in with a bid and salary neither party can refuse.
The same goes for midfielder N'Golo Kanté. Everyone can use a robust, stabilizing central midfielder. Arsenal, Chelsea, PSG, Manchester United, Juventus and others may be after the French international. He could prove the consolation prize in the Paul Pogba sweepstakes.
Jamie Vardy signed an extension in February, for about $117,000 per week. Going rate for a 20-goal-per-season striker may be double that, especially an English one who counts for UEFA registration quotas. He turns 30 next season. He scored only five goals the year before. Now is the time to sell.
Those are just some of the bigger names. Clubs will be getting cozy with goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel’s agent. Even 19-year-old left back Ben Chilwell, who spent the season on loan at Huddersfield Town, has been drawing serious interest.
A perfect storm blew the Premier League door open this season. Next year, at least, that door could blow back shut. Every usual suspect with an off year should improve.
Manchester City will add Pep Guardiola, perhaps the world’s best manager. He could arrive at the Etihad with six league titles in seven seasons and a third Champions League triumph. He will have money to spend. Chelsea will be revamping under Antonio Conte. Ditto for Manchester United, likely with Jose Mourinho.
Liverpool will be buying, in Jurgen Klopp’s first true transfer window. Arsenal (yes, Arsenal) may invest with Arsene Wenger entering perhaps his final season. Tottenham still have the best young squad in the EPL. Could a new manager resolve Everton’s defensive issues? Even West Ham have a strong manager and will be attempting to make a splash moving into a new stadium.
Leicester City had good fortune that may not be replicable. The Foxes endured almost no injury trouble. Vardy, Mahrez, Kanté, Okazaki, Schmeichel, Morgan, and Huth have each appeared in at least 33/36 Leicester matches. Their string of close 1-0 wins down the back stretch could have gone differently.
Can Leicester City sustain success? To be sure. Champions League soccer next year may prevent a full-on Southampton-style exodus. But, replicating this unprecedented level of success may be unlikely.
The Foxes face a bit of a conundrum. Does Leicester City load up for a perhaps once-in-a-lifetime Champions League run next season? Or, do they cash out and reinvest to keep the club a consistent Premier League presence in the intermediate to long term? Both answers are right, and wrong.
Leicester City’s season was incredible for a reason: it was improbable. It’s not likely to be repeated. The lesson should be to live in the moment. It has never been this good for Leicester City. Sports can be cruel and capricious. Enjoy it.