Is Italy Among the Euro 2016 Favorites After Belgium Win?

The great aphorism of European soccer is “Never count out the Italians,” slightly above “never count on the English.” When the Azzurri look moribund and desiccated, they are at their most dangerous. Oddsmakers hedge as much as civilians.

Italy sent what looked like its worst modern team to Euro 2016. That crew dispatched perpetual paper champions Belgium, 2-0, perhaps the best performance of the group stage so far. That showing begs the next question: how good are the Italians and should we recast them among the favorites?

Reasons for concern about Italy pre-tournament were valid. This Azzurri team is OLD. That statement required all-caps and italics. The Italians don’t have a player under 29 with 25 national team caps. Ten of the 11 starters against Belgium were 29 or older.

This Azzurri team lacks talent going forward. Two vital midfielders, Claudio Marchisio (ACL) and Marco Veratti (Hernia), are out. They have no proven scorers up front. The two forwards who started yesterday were anything but “top, top quality.”

Graziano Pelle struggled to get in the team at Southampton at the end of last season. Eder, a naturalized Brazilian, had a brutal second half after joining Inter in the transfer window.

It looked like there was not enough talent from Serie A to stock a team. Antonio Conte opting against recalling Andrea Pirlo, 37, and Sebastian Giovinco from MLS was a contentious decision.

What does Italy have? Defense. Gigi Buffon remains ageless and brilliant at goalkeeper. He’s fronted by the rock solid “BBC” of Bonucci, Barzagli, and Chiellini. Club continuity can be huge in international play. All four play for Juventus, who allowed just 20 goals in 38 Serie A matches.

Italy is well organized and cohesive. Conte, heading to Chelsea after the tournament, is the best coach at the Euros. Conte’s preparation will have them best set up to wring out the most from the talent on hand. His team also showed glimpses of uncharacteristic spirit against Belgium.

Will that be enough to carry them to the tournament’s decisive stages? They are built to counter some of the tournament favorites. Belgium had firepower. They also had an iffy back line and “wide” players inclined to play centrally. Italy exploited those weaknesses deftly with their 3-5-2. Germany and France, to a lesser extent, have those same faults.

One could see Italy grinding out a 0-0 draw with a Spain or Portugal. Ditto for England rushing headlong into their brick wall at the back.

Goal-scoring will be the limiting factor. Even the bad Italy teams can defend and play well tactically. It’s potency up front that makes the difference. This team does not seem to have a budding Paolo Rossi, Roberto Baggio, or Toto Schillachi. Pelle is the most prolific striker. He has six career goals for Italy (and, again, was not starting for a mid-table English club).

A dominant goal scorer, however, isn’t always necessary. Luca Toni was far from indomitable in 2006. The Italian World Cup winners had 10 different players score at least one goal. No one scored more than two. Of course, that team was younger and loaded with stars. The holdovers in this team are 10 years older.

Italy’s route may be a problem. The second-place team from Group D, Croatia, would be among the toughest Round of 16 draws for a group winner. Winning the group also puts them in the Germany/France bracket. They would have to beat both favorites just to reach the final.

Sneaking up in second place may have been more optimal. The second place-Group E finisher would face a toughest route of Portugal/England/Spain to get to the final.

Italy’s win encourages. It will have many reevaluating preconceptions. Less gifted teams have done crazier things in this tournament. But, there’s also the cautionary tale from 2014. Italy racked up a vital three points beating England 2-1 in Manaus in their first match. They followed that up with 1-0 losses to Costa Rica and Uruguay and went home.