Von Miller Would Have Already Accepted $70 Million Fully Guaranteed, If Denver Were Really Offering

Deadline day for Von Miller and other franchise-tagged players has arrived. As the deadline approaches, urgency for a deal increases. Last night and into this morning, we got this info:

So I’m going to take a step back and talk about this reporting. Someone wants you, and the general public, to hear this information. If the deal was done, you wouldn’t have heard squat until someone leaked the details to put a big number out there on the signing. Someone chose to put this out there, with less than 24 hours to go.

Let’s use some common sense. I have ranted in the past about how guaranteed money, as used by reporters like Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter, doesn’t really mean what it used to, and no longer means guaranteed.

Most of the time, though, when we see these fake numbers, it’s after the deal is reported as being finalized. A big number is put out there, headlines are made, agents get to point out how much money their client got and how great of a job they did, and several hours later, the real numbers and caveats and conditions come out (to far fewer page views).

Here is an even more dangerous case–just passing along a source’s claims of what the guaranteed money is, while the parties are wrangling. Is there any doubt that source is using the same logic that leads us to report inflated numbers as guaranteed when they are not?

Here are the facts:

Last year, as a free agent, Ndamukong Suh signed with the Miami Dolphins and got almost $60 million in guaranteed money. If Von Miller has really been offered $70 million guaranteed, without conditions, that would put him as the 2nd-highest amount of guaranteed money in the league, behind only Andrew Luck’s recent deal. It would be the highest for a non-QB by over $7 million, and be more than recent quarterback deals like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. He would be turning down a situation where he is shattering the guaranteed money by a defensive player and eclipsing every quarterback not named Luck.

Now, maybe Amy Trask is just making this statement completely unrelated to Von Miller. But let’s expound on that point. Why would Denver want this leaked unless they were still wrangling?

They want public pressure and for it to look like Von Miller is being unreasonable if he doesn’t take the deal, with the uncritically-accepted-at face-value claims of guaranteed money, passed through Rapoport and Schefter.

I think a deal gets done by the deadline, and maybe the first reporting of the deal by the likes of Schefter and Rapoport references “guaranteed” numbers in excess of $70 million. But my guess is they are haggling over what guaranteed really is. Guaranteed for injury only is not guaranteed. You get it only on certain conditions. Miller has a drug suspension in his past. I could see conditions over money being argued in the event of any further discipline. But, that’s not guaranteed then.

The parties have all the reason in the world to reach an agreement, but you heard about it early for a reason. Do you really think if Denver had unconditionally offered $70 million and shattered the record non-QB guaranteed money that it wouldn’t be already done? (Reminder: when guys like Suh signed, they didn’t have the franchise tag giving leverage to the organization in the other direction).

Greg Bishop of SI said that Miller was looking for a deal in the $60 million guaranteed range. Andrew Brandt of ESPN threw out that rather than play under the franchise tag, Miller would take $40 to $60 million guaranteed. Former agent Joel Corry said Von Miller should get $50 to $60 million guaranteed a month ago. $60 million has been the flashpoint and expected target all offseason.

$70 million is just a number, being put out there now by one side to create a perception. If it was really $70 million guaranteed – no strings attached and completely unconditional – the deal would already be done.

[photo via USA Today Images]