Ohio State, Alabama, and Notre Dame are Likely to Feel Loss of Deep Draft Classes
By Jason Lisk
Urban Meyer appeared at Big 10 Media Days today, to talk about the reloading Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State had ten players drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft this April, including five of the first 20 picks.
Let’s put that in some ridiculous perspective. Only one team in the last two decades has had even 8 players drafted in the first 3 rounds, Tennessee in the 2000 draft (and only two of those were in the first round). Ohio State’s nemesis last year, Michigan State, has had 10 players drafted in the first three rounds, since 2003.
Even if they reload, expecting that many top prospects to pan out and immediately fill the void is unrealistic. Even great programs don’t routinely turn out five guys who are drafted in the first two days of the NFL Draft.
Ohio State isn’t the only one coming off a large draft loss. National Champion Alabama didn’t have the high-end first rounders this year, but seven players were drafted in the first three rounds, the most under Saban (and only time he has had more than five drafted that highly in one year). Notre Dame also had its best group of draftees in recent times, with six different players selected, including two first rounders (plus Jaylon Smith, who would have been but for the knee injury in the bowl game).
How have the top programs fared the year after a large number of draft losses. These three programs are numbers 18, 19, and 20 to have at least six players drafted in the first three rounds of a draft, in the last two decades. Here is a complete list of all of them, including a summary of the yearly simple rating system (SRS) rank for the year before and after that draft, along with the records. (all draft data via pro-football-reference.com, and college ranking data via sr/college-football.)
These were all national powers at the time of the draft class losses. The average dropoff the next year was 5.8 points per game in the SRS. The year before the draft, the average win-loss record was 11.1 wins, 1.8 losses. The year after, they averaged 9.1 wins, 3.5 losses. Only two of the teams improved their win-loss record a year later: Ohio State in 2007 before losing the national title game, and USC in 2009.
There is no doubt that these teams have recruited well. Even though it’s a numbers game, not all top recruits pan out, and it would be a stunner if these programs had as much success with the type of losses. They’ll still be near the top, but keep in mind that over half of the prior programs to experience this type of roster attrition had 4 or more losses a year later. Ohio State lost way more than these other programs, and it’s basically one giant unknown how a talented program will replace so many talented players in the short term.