PGA Championship Preview: Day, Johnson, McIlroy, and Spieth All Lead the Way
By Michael Shamburger
With the PGA Championship starting on Thursday, it’s time for a quick rundown of the top players heading into the tournament, but first, the course.
Baltusrol
Located in Springfield, New Jersey, Baltusrol is a par 70 course that plays at 7,428 yards and doesn’t feature a par-5 until the final two holes. Those two holes measure a total of 1,203 yards. The 17th hole is set up as a 649-yarder, which seems pretty unnecessary and hopefully on one of the weekend days the hole is set up closer to 600 yards so that players are enticed to go for it. The biggest positive with the course is that it isn’t tricked out, meaning we don’t have to worry about the PGA setting up the greens to run around a 17 on the stimp meter.
Jason Day
Jason Day had not played a practice round when he spoke to the media on Wednesday morning at Baltusrol. Day relayed that both of his kids were sick and that he was feeling under the weather and not only that, his wife Ellie had an allergic reaction to something that required a call to the paramedics. At this point it may be safe to assume that Day may not enter any major championship without some sort of off-the-course issue or ailment prior to the start.
With that said, even though he isn’t the favorite in Vegas, he is the defending champion, is still the No. 1 player in the world, and has three wins this season. His putter is unreal and if the greens are receptive, which they currently are, he will have quite a bit of success.
Odds – 10/1
Dustin Johnson
The U.S. Open champion almost won a third tournament in four starts at the RBC Canadian Open. Johnson finished just one stroke behind winner Jhonattan Vegas. In his last six starts, Johnson has finished 3, 5, 1, 1, T9, and T2. The guy is playing some of the best golf of his career and there is no reason not to expect that to continue this week. With a course that has many holes that are long par-4s and only two par-5s, Johnson’s length and his ability to hit close to the hole should give him a bit of an advantage this week.
There is a chance that after this week, Johnson could be the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world. That could happen if he wins and Jason Day finishes worse than a two-way tie for second, or if he finishes alone in second and Day finishes worse than 28th.
Odds – 15/2
Rory McIlroy
Rory hasn’t won a major tournament since the 2014 PGA Championship, his second PGA Championship win. This season he has nine top 10 finishes, eight of which were top five finishes, and a win at the Irish Open. In his last five starts he has finished 1, T4, missed the cut at the U.S. Open, 3, and T5 at The Open. Clearly he’s struggling right? Nope. McIlroy ranks first in strokes gained off-the-tee, third in strokes gained tee-to-green, and fifth in total strokes gained.
McIlroy believes the course sets up well for him:
"Via ASAP Sports: I feel like a lot of the courses that I’ve played in PGA Championships have been very fair. Everything is straight out in front of you. You don’t really need to trick it up much. I think the course setup; I think Kerry and his team always do a great job there. So it’s a fair golf course. This week especially, I feel like everything’s — as I said, everything is straight out in front of you. There’s no real hidden secrets to it. And I feel that’s what really let’s me excel. I feel like I can play my game in PGA Championships. I can hit driver off the tee the most time, and from there, if I drive it well, I feel like I have a big advantage. It’s all been a tournament that’s set up well for me. I’ve had some good finishes here. Obviously the wins in 2012 and 2014, but then I’ve had a couple of top threes, a couple of Top-10s, apart from that, as well. So it’s been a good tournament for me. "
Hopefully Rory’s “tight shirts” don’t mess up his chances this week.
Odds – 9/1
Jordan Spieth
Sure Jordan Spieth finished outside of the top 30 at both the U.S. Open and Open Championship, but as the third ranked golfer in the world who finished second behind Jason Day at the PGA Championship in 2015 at Whistling Straits, he cannot be overlooked. Spieth has a lot of expectations on his shoulders. He is/was supposed to be the face of American golf after winning the Masters and U.S. Open in 2015. He also finished just outside of a playoff at 2015 The Open and second behind Jason Day at Whistling Straits, and his major championship run continued at the 2016 Masters where he held the lead until that debacle at the 12th hole during the final round.
With consistent play at Baltusrol, Spieth could collect a third major and continue his road to a career grand slam.
Odds – 14/1
Henrik Stenson
Henrik Stenson won his first major championship just two weeks ago at the Open Championship at Royal Troon. Stenson’s duel with Phil Mickelson will go down as one of the best performances in major championship golf history. As one of the best ball strikers on Tour, Stenson had a small advantage at Troon because he was able to minimize mistakes and that helped him take advantage of the difficult weather conditions. At Baltusrol, his ball striking will be a positive, but it likely won’t give him as much of an advantage as he had at The Open. Stenson will also need to putt better than he has most of the year. He currently ranks 152nd in strokes gained putting, even after a spectacular performance at The Open where he led the field in birdies.
Odds – 15/1
Phil Mickelson
Somehow Phil Mickelson continues to be one of the best golfers in the world at the age of 46. He just put on one of the greatest shows in major championship history at The Open and his score was good enough to win 141 of 145 editions of the tournament. A win at the PGA Championship this year would solidify his legacy as one of the greatest to ever play the game and give him a sixth career major, which would put him in very elite company with Vardon, Jones, Snead, Palmer, Sarazen, Watson, Player, Hogan, Hagen, Woods, and Nicklaus.
Mickelson won the PGA Championship in 2005 and it was at Baltusrol.
The question for Phil is whether or not he can continue his spectacular play after putting forth so much effort at The Open and coming up just short behind Henrik Stenson.
Odds – 18/1
Sergio Garcia
Garcia, who is 36 years old, is still chasing his first major championship. Garcia has finished T5, T5, T5, and 1 in his last four starts, with two of those performances coming in major tournaments. He’s finished second at the PGA Championship twice in his career, but in his last seven PGA Championship appearances he has missed the cut three times, finished T35 or worse three times, and T12 in 2011. Garcia finished T23 in 2005 at Baltusrol.
He may be a “long shot” to win this week, but it’s very possible that he could walk away with his first major.
Odds – 25/1
Others to Consider
Bubba Watson – 35/1
Brandt Snedeker – 55/1
Hideki Matsuyama – 70/1
Feelings
It would be nice to see Rickie Fowler have a nice outing.
My Pick
Well, any of the top four in the world make sense, but I am on the DJ train. He’s playing out of his mind right now and even though he played in The Open and RBC Canadian Open, which is a lot of travel over a short span, he is still playing more consistent golf at the moment than anyone else on Tour.