Fantasy Football 2016: The Top 8 "Wild Card" Offenses in NFL
By Jason Lisk
Every year, there are offenses in the NFL that seem to come out of nowhere to emerge. Others take big fall offs. Some of these can be somewhat predictable, but it is still largely an unpredictable game–unless you have an injury crystal ball and can say who will get hurt.
Still, while we cannot predict future injuries with much certainty, we can look back at teams that were damaged by them to see who could bounce back. As I am going through to prepare my fantasy football projections, which I build on both a team and individual level, there are some teams that are simply tougher calls because of levels of uncertainty. Here are some of those teams, and the issues when trying to guess how they will do this year.
#1 Dallas Cowboys: The 2015 version of the Dallas Cowboys collapsed under the weight of key offensive losses and questionable depth. How healthy can Tony Romo stay at this point, though, at age 36? We know that two years ago, the Cowboys were a top 5 offense. Last year, with Romo and Dez Bryant both out for most of the season, they were a bottom 5 offense.
Add in Ezekiel Elliott, and a great offensive line, and the potential is there for a leap back to 2014 … if Romo’s shoulder doesn’t implode on first contact. Good luck guessing on that.
#2 Baltimore Ravens: No one will confuse this offense with the Greatest Show on Turf, but the Ravens were 8th in points scored two years ago. Last year, no team was crushed by injuries across all offensive position groups like the Ravens.
Joe Flacco missed the last six games, resulting in 6 starts by Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallett, and Jimmy Clausen. Starting running back Justin Forsett missed six games, and the young back expected to emerge, Lorenzo Taliaferro, never could get healthy. First round pick Breshad Perriman never played in a game, and Steve Smith’s season ended after 7 games. The offensive line was a mess and also decimated by injuries.
There are still plenty of questions at receiver (when will Perriman get on the field, does Smith have anything left?) but the team added Mike Wallace to join Kamar Aiken as the last man standing among the receivers, and signed Benjamin Watson at tight end. Ronnie Stanley was the top pick in the draft to bolster the line. Flacco, whether you think he is elite or not, should be recovered. This offense should bounce back to at least league average numbers with better injury luck.
#3 San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers made it through all 16 games last year somehow. Not much around him stayed the same. Rivers set career highs in completions and attempts as he had to carry the team. At the halfway point, Keenan Allen was lost for the season. Rivers was averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, and threw 18 touchdowns through 8 games. Over the final eight, he averaged 6.5 yards per attempt and threw 11 touchdowns.
The offensive line was decimated as the season wore on, adding to the woes. Left tackle King Dunlap was also lost for the season after 7 games. Only one lineman, Joe Barksdale, who wasn’t even slated as a starter in the preseason, started all 16 games.
The Chargers used their top pick to address defense with Joey Bosa, but have added veteran Matt Slauson to play center (while also drafting the center of the future in Max Tuerk), signed Travis Benjamin to start opposite Allen, and added Hunter Henry as Antonio Gates’ successor at tight end.
#4 New England Patriots: You might not expect a top team to appear on this list, but there were plenty of injury issues in New England last year, and uncertainty as we start 2016.
The Patriots offense that started last season was an unstoppable machine. Then, the offensive line continued to have issues. Dion Lewis–who was a revelation at running back–was lost for the season with a knee injury. Julian Edelman missed 7 games. Tom Brady’s numbers plummeted from historically great season to below average over the second half (8.3 YPA to 6.9 YPA). About the only thing that went right, for once, was that Rob Gronkowskistayed on the field.
Now, Brady’s out for four games. Your guess is as good as anyone as to how Jimmy Garoppolo will handle the four-game audition. And then, we don’t know if Brady can continue to be other-worldly when he returns at age 39. Let’s face it, there is little precedent for a QB being a MVP caliber performer this late in a career. The only other two that did it after age 38 (Manning last year and Favre in 2009) fell off a cliff the next year.
#5 Cleveland Browns: Everything is new in Cleveland. Same old Browns? We’ll see. You have a new coach, who has presided over some good offenses, in Hue Jackson. Robert Griffin III is looking to revive his career. Josh Gordon will be back after a suspension. The team drafted Corey Coleman. Duke Johnson is entering year two and looks like a pretty good receiving back.
#6 San Francisco: This is all about Chip Kelly and how much you think he can alter things in San Francisco. Colin Kaepernick was a mess last year, and is in competition with Blaine Gabbert. Carlos Hyde had a great first game but could never really get healthy a year ago as the season went on.
Glass half-full would point to Kelly’s success with other quarterbacks, none with the apparent tools of Kaepernick. Glass half-empty would point to how things went south as last year went on in Philadelphia.
Where does that leave us? Probably better than the forgettable Jim Tomsula era. But how much better?
#7 Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler tied a career high 7.6 yards per attempt last year, and he did so on a team devastated by injuries on offense. Kevin White never played. Alshon Jeffery was limited and missed games. Matt Forte (now gone to New York) missed games.
On the other hand, Adam Gase is gone this year, now the head coach in Miami, and you have to try to balance that impact, versus adding two potential difference makers at receiver, in White and Jeffery.
#8 Houston Texans: A year ago, the offense was some combination of Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer, with Arian Foster still at running back. Foster got hurt, Mallett fell apart, and Hoyer–though he played well at times–imploded in the playoffs.
I’m not a huge Brock Osweiler fan, he took a lot of sacks in Denver, and I don’t know how that will translate, but you now have Lamar Miller at running back, and the team added Will Fuller as a speed threat that was lacking opposite DeAndre Hopkins.