Picking Alabama Is Boring, But Wise
By Ty Duffy
It’s now August, the point where college football talking season reaches its apex. In the midst of uncertainty, we cling to apparent tangible certainties – returning starters, returning quarterbacks, talent lost to the NFL – and project forward. Ever hopeful, we gravitate away from the boring. Alabama is boring.
The Tide have won four of the past seven national titles. When they don’t win it often comes down to one play. Yet, every year, we talk ourselves into someone else. Last year, it was Auburn primed for dethroning. Two thirds of the college football media had them in the playoff last year. This year’s version will be LSU or Tennessee.
This is a trap. Trust Alabama, the surest thing in college football.
Alabama brings in talent, every year. 2016 was their sixth-straight season bringing in the No. 1 overall class per the 247 Composite.
Said recruits flock to Alabama, because Alabama develops talent. They lost seven NFL players from last year’s team. They have had fewer than seven players drafted once since 2010. That was the 2011 draft with five, four taken in the first round. The depleted team coming back has eight players in our Top 50 College Football Players list, four in the Top 15.
Alabama does things with the talent it develops. Their consistent track record is unmatched. Nick Saban has a 98-12 record since 2008, 56-8 in the SEC. Four national titles since 2009. Their lowest SRS finish in the past five years is third. The worst team in that stretch was Alabama’s 2010 team, perhaps the best three-loss team ever. Ask Michigan State.
New quarterback this year? That’s irrelevant at Alabama. The Tide won with A.J. McCarron, one of the most efficient college passers ever. They went to the playoff in 2014 with Blake Sims, a fifth-year stop gap. They won the playoff in 2015 with Jake Coker, who couldn’t beat Sims out the year before and ranked outside the Top 30 in passer rating and yards/attempt.
Alabama’s quarterback dilemma is which Top 100 overall recruit who has been in the system a number of years to select. Not to mention, five of the eight college football playoff teams the past two years had first year starters at QB. So did both BCS title game participants the year before. New QB starters have won three of the past six Heisman trophies.
There are questions about Alabama. One can cast doubt over any program. But, Alabama has fewer questions than anyone and a far better track record of answering them.
It may be boring and chalky to mark Alabama the favorite entering the 2016 college football season. It is also the most rational conclusion given recent history.