We fought back above .500 last week, going 3-2. These picks are 13-16-1 ATS on the season.
Ole Miss (-7.5) vs. Arkansas
Home dogs in the SEC, right? Not this one. Arkansas has a bad situation. Alabama tenderized them last week, while Ole Miss regrouped on a bye. Arkansas has a bad matchup. Ole Miss can torch their awful pass defense. The Razorbacks have to throw against a Rebel defense better at defending the pass. Arkansas is ranked. They also haven’t beaten an FBS team in regulation. This game won’t arouse Bret Bielema
Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Stanford
For all the ughs. Stanford has a rough schedule. That’s wearing on them. The Cardinal head on the road, cross-country, for their fifth “big” game in a row. The last two, Washington and Washington State, were blowouts. Stanford can’t set the tone on either line. Their one man on a one-man team is banged up and may not play. We know Notre Dame can pass in reasonable weather. We know Stanford may have trouble defending that. Here come the Irish, by at least a field goal.
Northwestern (+4.5) at Michigan State
Michigan State’s slide can’t continue for a fourth-straight week, right? What reason for optimism have the Spartans offered, on either side of the ball? Northwestern is a similar team. The Wildcats are more disruptive up front on defense and should make headway through the air against a porous Michigan State pass defense. This will be brutal, will be ugly, and will probably be decided by a field goal. Take the points in a power outage.
Rutgers (+6) vs. Illinois
The Rutgers numbers are horrific. They’ve also played three of the top five teams – Washington, Ohio State, and Michigan. Other games…they beat two minnows and lost to Iowa on a fourth quarter fumble. The question here is why you’re trusting Illinois as road favorite. The Illini are 0-4 against FBS teams this season. They are fresh off a loss to Purdue, at home. Purdue. They are not sure whether starting QB Wes Lunt will play. The Scarlet Knights crawl out from their shell craters and cover.
Oregon State (+9) vs. Utah
Utah can be a bad matchup for typical Pac 12 teams. Oregon State is atypical. They lean heavily on a strong run game. With strong corners, they have an excellent pass defense. The Beavers held prolific Chad Hansen to four catches and 16 yards. This will be a cold, rainy, night game in Corvallis. Utah’s chunk pass plays probably aren’t going to be there. The Beavers make it a close one.