Trust the process. Our picks are 10-0 ATS the past two weeks, bringing us to 27-20-3 ATS on the season. Here’s who we like for Week 11. This week’s motif is run defense and Pac 12 underdogs.
USC (+8.5) at Washington
The Trojans have toiled in late-Pac 12 kickoff anonymity. But, this has become a good team. They’ve beaten four of their last five opponents by three touchdowns or more. If you’re looking for a flaw with Washington, good rushing teams have been able to get yards on them. The Huskies gave up 5-plus yards to Oregon and Oregon State and 7-plus in their near loss to Arizona.
Oregon (+3) vs. Stanford
Stanford is not Stanford this season. This is not an imperious, trench-controlling unit. The Cardinal front seven on defense ranks just 74th in havoc. They will struggle with Oregon’s rushing attack. If that’s the case, Stanford’s offense will have to outscore the Ducks. The Cardinal have produced 30-plus points once this season. Their offense has scored just 16 touchdowns through nine games.
Arizona State (+5.5) vs. Utah
This is a bad matchup for Utah on the road. Arizona State generates pressure up front and stops the run well. Most teams torch them through the air. But, Utah doesn’t have the quarterback play to do that for 60 minutes. The Sun Devils are 5-0 ATS at home this season. Six of eight Utah games vs. FBS opponents have been decided by one score. Expect this game to follow suit.
Boston College (+21) vs. Florida State
The Seminoles have not beaten an FBS team by 21 points this season. Their most emphatic win over an ACC team is 17-6 over Wake Forest. BC has played FSU tough and held it within 14 points the past three seasons under Addazio. The past two years it has been their run defense bottling up Dalvin Cook. He has just 130 yards on 29 carries combined in two games against the Eagles. Zero touchdowns.
Indiana (+7) vs. Penn State
Penn State has played three road games this season. They lost to Pitt, were stomped on by Michigan, and were in a ball game against Purdue until a second half turnover apocalypse. Indiana has a solid defense, that plays well situationally. Penn State’s offense, while potent, remains a nightmare on third down and in the red zone. The Hoosiers keep this a scrappy, one-score game at home.