We slid last week going 1-4, falling to 28-24-3 on the season. Here’s who we like for week 12.
LSU (-14) vs. Florida
The battle of ex-Purdue quarterbacks is upon us. LSU may be the SEC’s toughest road environment. The Tigers have a legit Top 10 defense. It’s not clear how Florida will score in this game. On the other side of the ball, it’s LSU’s two-headed rushing attack against an injury-bitten Florida defense starting freshmen linebackers. Geaux Tigers.
Maryland (+14.5) vs. Nebraska
Backing the Terps is tough, after debacles against Michigan and Ohio State. Here’s why you should. Nebraska does not put teams away. The Cornhuskers’ one P5 win by more than 14 points was 31-16 over Illinois, in a game they trailed 16-10 entering the 4th quarter. Maryland gets to run the ball against a much softer Nebraska run defense.
Arizona (+6.5) at Oregon State
Six-pointer in the Pac 12 relegation battle. Oregon State has been a robust team against the spread. They have a great pass defense, which troubles many Pac 12 attacks. In this game, however, Arizona will run right at the Beavers all game. Oregon State ranks 114th in yards/carry allowed vs. FBS teams. Take the points in a shootout.
Illinois (+10) vs. Iowa
Iowa has to eat a road sandwich here. It’s a let down after beating Michigan. It’s a look ahead before Nebraska. Illinois’ defensive front can give the Hawkeyes issues, and the Illini can run the ball. Opponents have held Iowa to 14 points or fewer five times in seven B1G games. They have one win by more than a touchdown in conference play. Can’t trust them to cover double-digits on the road.
Houston (+14) vs. Louisville
Houston vs. Louisville won’t be the epic clash folks expected before the season. But, the Cougars can give Louisville trouble with their defensive front, and they have a quarterback who can make plays. Those two things can’t be said for most of Louisville’s opponents this season. Fourteen is too many points on the road, Thursday night, against a team with little else to play for and a track record of pulling off upsets.