10 NFL Players Who Will Regress In 2017

The 2017 NFL regular season is fast approaching. With that in mind, here’s a look at 10 players who won’t be able to duplicate their success from 2016 this season. The following guys are all set to regress this year.

10. Sam Bradford, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Sam Bradford spent his first season with the Vikings surprising most with an efficient showing. The former No. 1 overall pick threw for 3,877 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. His passer rating of 99.3 was a career-high, as was his Total QBR of 63.0.

Bradford’s numbers will likely decline as the Vikings use the running game with Dalvin Cook this year. Meanwhile, the receiving corps didn’t improve at all, as Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen remain the team’s top targets. A regression is almost certain for Bradford, who has never had back-to-back solid seasons.

9. Casey Hayward, CB, Los Angeles Chargers
After arriving in San Diego as a free agent last offseason, Casey Hayward blew up. He led the NFL with seven interceptions and was named Second-team All-Pro and went to his first Pro Bowl. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely he’ll repeat that performance.

Hayward played far above his ability last season and a regression to the mean is highly likely. He’ll turn 28 in September and his four seasons in Green Bay showed us the kind of player he is.

8. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans had his best season as a pro in 2016, posting career-highs in receptions (96), yards (1,321) and tied a career-best with 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Jameis Winston and Evans have become a very solid young pass-catch tandem.

But in 2017, expect Evans’ production to drop. With tight end O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson on board, Evans will almost certainly see fewer touches. Plus, he’s solidified himself as a No. 1 receiver now and will see far more attention from defenses.

7. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton had a career-year in 2016, he posted career-bests in receptions (91) and yards (1,448). Like Evans, he became a solid No. 1 wideout for Andrew Luck. Unfortunately Luck may not be around for a while this year.

The Colts have not stated whether or not Luck will be ready for the start of the season after offseason shoulder surgery. Without him, Hilton’s numbers will take a massive hit. Additionally, this is an offense without a ton of help for Luck and Hilton. Frank Gore is the running back, and Donte Moncrief is the No. 2 wideout. Hilton is going to face a ton of pressure from opponents.

6. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott had a charmed season as a rookie in 2016 and was in the conversation for the MVP award at the end of the year. He completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 3,667 yards, with 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while adding six rushing touchdowns. But don’t expect the 24-year-old to repeat those results.

The Cowboys are likely to regress as a team in 2017 (see: No. 1) and that will hurt Prescott. Dez Bryant is a prodigious talent but only had 50 receptions on 97 targets last season, Terrence Williams has always been unreliable and Cole Beasley is unlikely to repeat his 75-reception performance from 2016. Additionally, Dallas’ defense took a big hit in free agency, which will put far more pressure  on the offense.

Other than his offensive line, Prescott’s supporting cast isn’t as good as it looked last season. Defenses will attack him differently this year and he’ll have to adjust. It won’t be easy to recreate his phenomenal rookie season.

5. Tyrell Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Tyrell Williams exploded onto the scene in 2016 with 69 receptions for 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns. The Western Oregon product is 6’4″ and 205 pounds and has excellent speed. But don’t expect him to reproduce his numbers in 2017.

Williams was able to get so many targets from Philip Rivers in 2016 because No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 1. Allen is back, tight end Hunter Henry has emerged as a legitimate target and the team spent its first-round pick on Clemson wideout Mike Williams (who may or may not play this year). All of those guys will chip away at Tyrell Williams’ targets (120 in 2016), as will Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman.

Williams will be a valuable deep threat, but don’t expect him to set the world on fire.

4. Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
Jordan Howard went from being a fifth-round pick to a star for the Chicago Bears as a rookie in 2016. The Indiana product reached the Pro Bowl and was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise awful season. He finished second in the NFL with 1,313 rushing yards, while his 5.2 yards per carry ranked second among backs with at least 200 carries. It was truly a great rookie season.

Unfortunately, 2017 is almost certain to provide a rude awakening for Howard. The Bears have three below-average quarterbacks on their roster (including rookie Mitchell Trubisky), Alshon Jeffery is gone and the receiving corps looks terrible. Opponents will likely stack the box to stop Howard, which will hurt his numbers tremendously. It could be a long season for him.

3. Nick Perry, OLB, Green Bay Packers
Nick Perry finally broke through in 2016 with the kind of season many expected when he was a first round pick in 2012. He was a force off the edge for the Packers, racking up a team-high 11 sacks and adding five more tackles for loss. He cashed in on that success, re-signing with the Packers for five years at $60 million this offseason.

Sadly, it’s hard to see Perry replicating that success despite his obvious talent. The 27-year-old has struggled mightily with injuries for all five of his NFL seasons. He’s never played a full 16-game schedule. Additionally, he had a combined 12.5 career sacks in four season before 2016. If he can stay healthy, Perry has the talent to be a star. He’s just never manage to do that.

2. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Before you freak out, this isn’t a knock on Matt Ryan, it’s just that his 2016 was so good, it’s unlikely he’ll ever replicate those numbers. During an MVP campaign in 2016, Ryan completed 69.9 percent of his passes for 4,944 yards, with 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He led the NFL in yards per attempt (9.26), passer rating (117.1) and Total QBR (83.3).

I’m sorry, but there is zero chance he replicates the fantastic season he had in 2016. He was essentially in the zone for nearly five months. Even in that devastating Super Bowl loss to the Patriots his passer rating was 144.1 and his Total QBR was 79.2.

Ryan is likely to have another excellent season in 2017, but there’s no way he does what he did during that magical 2016 campaign.

1. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott was the best player in the NFL last year, and he did it as a rookie. Yeah, you read that right. He led the NFL in rushing (1,631), runs of 20-plus yards (14), first downs (91) and he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, while scoring 15 touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 363 yards and another score. The Ohio State product was fantastic.

Unfortunately for Elliott, it’s almost certain that he’ll be suspended to start the year, which means his numbers will take a severe hit. Defenses will also game plan to stop him, which will make life far more difficult in his second season. On top of that, reports concerning his behavior don’t seem encouraging. He has seemed to enjoy the spotlight and the party circuit a lot, which rarely bodes well for a player’s season.

At 22, Elliott needs to mature and do so quickly. The Cowboys need he and Dak Prescott to be the cornerstones of the franchise. While Prescott’s maturity has shown through, Elliott’s has not. Expect a step back in 2017.

*UPDATE: Elliott has been suspended for six games.