Fantasy Football Most Undervalued and Overvalued Players
By Jason Lisk
Most of my Top 200 Fantasy List is somewhat in line with the average draft position we see in typical drafts, which makes sense. My hope is to estimate how touches and roles will be distributed across teams, and the biggest indicators are past usage on a team level, and individual performance.
However, there are times when I am outside the norm. Here is my explanation of some of the players where my ranking is out of line, and why I think that is. You can assess whether my rationale works.
OVERVALUED
ADP: WR8 (2nd Round)
My Rank: WR22 (5th Round)
Why my rankings differ: There’s no doubt of Bryant’s freakish talent, especially in the red zone, when at his peak. The issue, though, is that Bryant has been nowhere near the sure thing of some other wide receivers who are going in the same range. Go look at the Top 15 Wide Receivers. Even discounting his missed games, over the last two years, Bryant has 2 of the 3 lowest seasonal receiving yards per game for the last two years (Only DeAndre Hopkins 2016 is lower, and he was over 90 yards per game the season before and is going more than a round after Bryant).
My fantasy projections for the rest of the Cowboys’ skill players are pretty much in line with ADP, but Bryant is expected to have a sizable chunk of the offense. Maybe he will, but he hasn’t put up numbers justifying his draft position recently. The second round is a spot where you have to nail the pick.
ADP: RB12 (2nd to 3rd Round)
My Rank: RB18 (3rd to 4th Round)
I wrote about my thoughts on Marshawn Lynch earlier. He’s in a good situation, and he might get off to a good start scoring touchdowns. My concern is whether he has it, since it’s been several years since the last time we saw him go through a full season.
ADP: QB2 (2nd Round)
My Rank: QB5 (4th Round)
Why my rankings differ: This one’s more a case of acknowledging *some* risk with Brady at age 40, and thinking he’s one of several options and not a clearcut #2 at the position. Drafters are grouping he and Rodgers together, just a few picks apart. Rodgers averaged a couple more points a game a year ago. Thus, we expect more regression from Rodgers? Matt Ryan averaged more points, and Brees was similar. Brees is going a full round later and Ryan two rounds.
The data on 40-year old QBs is very thin. Brady’s in uncharted waters. We’ve seen Brett Favre and Peyton Manning age quickly overnight at a similar age. I’d wait on that tier of QBs after Rodgers, and certainly wouldn’t be taking one in the 2nd round or early 3rd. That probably means I would never get Brady and would get Ryan instead two rounds later.
ADP: WR18 (4th Round)
My Rank: WR28 (6th Round)
Why my rankings differ: I think this one is more an allocation of expected usage. Tyrell Williams emerged last year after Allen got hurt. The team drafted Mike Williams (he’s out right now but could contribute at some point). Hunter Henry is moving into year two, while veteran Antonio Gates is on board. Add in that Allen has had injury issues end each of the last two years prematurely, and the risk has me putting him at the opposite end of this large tier of receivers in the 4th to 6th round range.
ADP: RB29 (7th Round)
My Rank: RB36 (9th Round)
Why my rankings differ: Frank Gore has been Mr. Consistent. He’s now 34 years old and hasn’t missed a game since 2010. Of course, of the 19 backs who had at least 100 carries at age 33, only 4 of them did it again at age 34. That’s a large decline rate. (Only two–Marcus Allen and John Riggins, were top 24 in fantasy points).
So while backs start falling off a cliff, the rate of how many fall really picks up for those that make it to the age Gore is now. My rankings bake in those odds. Gore is a good gamble by the 9th round–he’s going to start the year getting the most carries–but you get enough booms earlier than that it makes it difficult to take him in the same range as other starters.
I also think Gore wouldn’t have been getting those carries on most teams to allow him to finish RB12 the last two years while averaging under 4 yards a carry. The Colts have been running back depth empty recently. Will rookie Marlon Mack show enough to demand carries as the season goes on?
UNDERVALUED
ADP: RB20 (4th-5th Round)
My Rank: RB13 (3rd Round)
Why my rankings differ: Frankly, I think it’s because of trepidation of going with a receiving back–and one who doesn’t have a track record–too early. It’s not that my projections are outlandish. In fact, I have Green Bay projected to have the 30th-best rushing production out of the running back position on rush attempts (rushing yards + rushing TDs). So if anything, there’s upside if they improve.
Ty Montgomery is only projected to have 180 rushing attempts. I have rookie Jamaal Williams at 120, so about a 60/40 split, nothing excessive (and my ranking of Williams is in line with ADP). The reason Montgomery is so valuable is I’m projecting him to be the primary receiving back in the #1 passing offense.
ADP: RB23 (5th-6th Round)
My Rank: RB19 (4th Round)
Why my rankings differ: A belief that Abdullah can be a good back. His seasons was cut short 1.5 games in a year ago. In the first game, he had 120 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Prior to last year, the Lions had also produced over 900 receiving yards out of the backfield frequently. After Abdullah and Riddick both got hurt, that dried up, but I think that was personnel-related. Riddick will still get plenty of receiving yards, but there should be plenty to go around for Abdullah, who is far more talented than the non-Riddick backs on the team.
ADP: TE10 (8th Round)
My Rank: TE5 (5th Round)
Ertz is entering his 5th year and has finished as TE18, TE14, TE10, and TE8 (and that was with two games missed a year ago). He’s the second-best option in a passing game that should improve in year two with Carson Wentz, after Alshon Jeffery. I think he’s a pretty solid pick and for some reason isn’t being drafted in the same range so you can wait on him after the first and second tier of tight ends go.
ADP: TE11 (9th Round)
My Rank: TE6 (6th Round)
Why my rankings differ: Whereas Ertz seems like a safe play, Henry is the upside play. He scored 8 touchdowns and put up decent numbers while sharing the tight end position with Antonio Gates as a rookie. He’ll be 23 (and several all-pros broke out in year 2 or 3 at a similar age).
Here are the six other tight ends since the merger who had similar stats as Henry as a rookie (within 2 touchdowns, 100 receiving yards, and 10 catches): Rob Gronkowski, Eric Green, Heath Miller, Raymond Chester, Aaron Hernandez, and Robert Awalt. Four of them finished top 4 in the position in year two, and all were in the top 13 in tight end scoring.
Henry is likely the real deal and it just comes to how big of a share of the offense he gets this season with the Chargers.
ADP: QB12 (9th Round)
My Rank: QB9 (6th Round)
My Rank: In 2014, Roethlisberger was top 4 in QB points, the last time that Martavis Bryant played extensively and Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown played a full season together. I think he’s in a good situation to excel in 2017. Simple as that. He gives you upside to have a top starter at a discount price.