The Top Ten Future Hall of Fame Debates Involving Current NFL Players
By Jason Lisk
The 2018 Hall of Fame class will be announced on Saturday. There will be several prominent first-year-eligible guys who have a chance to go right in, like Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, and Randy Moss. Then, there will be those that present disagreements and arguments in the discussion room, and in online debates. How is Terrell Owens still not in the Hall of Fame? How should they view a guy like Tony Boselli, who was dominant as a left tackle for a stretch, but had injuries that cut his career short? Do defenders from Super Bowl teams like John Lynch or Ty Law get consideration? Not everyone can go in, and those contrasts will be discussed.
But I’m going to turn to the active players, to try to predict who will be our future bar fights, Hall of Fame room debates, and controversies. Here are my top ten guys who will be much-discussed over a period of years as they appear on the Finalist lists.
#1 Eli Manning and #2 Philip Rivers
Eli Manning and Philip Rivers have been tied together since they both came into the league, and the Chargers drafted and traded Manning to the Giants for a haul that included Rivers. They also present a contrast, and a litmus test for voters on a variety of issues. Ultimately, I think both will get into to the Hall of Fame, but it won’t until we’ve had several years of public debates, and trust me, it will be a battle to determine who goes in first.
Both will likely be on the finalist list for a few years before getting in, because they will retire at about the same time as several other quarterbacks who will go in on the first or second ballot: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger.
Eli Manning, of course, has the rings argument, and being involved in two famous upsets of the Patriots’ machine. The counter-argument to his famous playoff runs is pretty much everything else. He’s led the league in a category only three times, and all three most interceptions thrown. His career record over a large sample size is 111-103. He’s been a pro bowler only four times, which would be on the very low end for a Hall of Famer. The only “modern” quarterbacks with that few pro bowls are Terry Bradshaw (4 rings, league MVP), Kurt Warner (3 Super Bowl appearances, 2 MVPs), Bart Starr (5 NFL titles, league MVP), and Ken Stabler (1 Super Bowl, league MVP and offensive player of the year in another season–waited to get in as Senior Selection).
Eli has had one elite regular season, in 2011 when he was a pro bowler and the Giants won the title. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt that year and led 7 fourth-quarter comebacks to just get the Giants in the postseason. He has never won a regular season MVP award. Troy Aikman (6 pro bowls, 3 Super Bowl wins) is only other quarterback in the Hall who was never a MVP selection by any organization. So even in the “Rings” crowd made up of quarterbacks who got a boost in Hall of Fame voting by their playoff performances and titles won, Eli is at the bottom of the group.
Of course, the same “he never won a MVP” argument applies to Philip Rivers. Rivers, I think it is fair to say, has had more consistent regular season success, with a 106-86 career record, having been selected to 7 pro bowls, and leading the league in yards per attempt three times. If he never made it, he would ultimately have the most pro bowl appearances of any QB not in the Hall–a distinction that right now goes to Donovan McNabb.
So while neither is a slam dunk, and both are likely to make it, they will be a debate topic for several years, and probably split some votes for awhile. The New York media will probably not handle any delay to Eli’s enshrinement with patience, either, so expect this to be a fun one.
#3 Frank Gore and #4 Marshawn Lynch
I’m also grouping Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch together because they are contemporaries who present opposite cases. If the selections were made today I think people, with the emotion of Gore achieving recent milestones and moving into the Top 5 in career rush yards, would put him in. But five years provides time for perspective, and not every guy who ended his career in the Top 5 in a counting category has gotten in to Canton.
Gore is a fascinating case–and anyone that derides the Baseball Hall of Fame for favoring milestone stats over dominance can’t really talk if they are campaigning for Gore. He has no rings. He has no elite historic seasons. He was very good for a long time, and at least decent for a very long time. He’s had now 12 straight seasons with over 1,200 yards from scrimmage. He’s been top 5 in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage only once (back at age 23) and never top 5 in rushing touchdowns or total touchdowns. He’s never been selected as a first team all-pro.
There are 35 running backs in the Hall of Fame. You know how many of them were never selected as a first-team all-pro? One. John Henry Johnson. Gore is the extreme case of longevity over peak when it comes to Hall of Fame debates, and it is going to be a talking point for awhile.
And he stands in contrast to Marshawn Lynch. Lynch won’t have the counting stats of Gore, he broke down at age 29, he walked away for a year, and came out of retirement this year without doing much to add to his case (though it was very similar to Gore’s season). But I think you’d be hard-pressed to argue that while they were contemporaries from 2007 to present, Lynch wasn’t the better option on balance. Lynch made four straight pro bowls, was a first team all-pro, and made two Super Bowl appearances and was a key cog in a title team. He has the famous playoff moments. Lynch led the league in TDs three times. Lynch is by no means a slam-dunk candidate but I think the presence of he and Gore together will make for plenty of arguments.
#5 Ndamukong Suh
Ndamukong Suh has been a dominant defensive line force for almost a decade. He’s been a three-time first-team all-pro at defensive tackle, and a five-time pro bowler. That puts him in company with guys like Cortez Kennedy, Michael Strahan, and Julius Peppers at age 30. It also puts him in company with some guys who aren’t in the Hall but were dominant defensive linemen for a stretch, like Mark Gastineau, Alex Karras, and Richard Seymour.
So he’s no lock right now as it is, but is very much a finalist candidate. Add in his very notable on-field incidents and pushing things to the edge, and you have all the ingredients for someone who will be at the heart of plenty of debates in future years.
#6 Adam Vinatieri
Trust me on this one, Adam Vinatieri is going to be a hot button Hall of Fame debate. There are plenty of selectors who are going to have a hard time putting a kicker in when debating some of the other position players on this list anyway. Then there will be debate over whether that kicker should be Vinatieri, he has the famous moments and the Super Bowl kicks and rings. He’s lasted forever. Has he been the best kicker over the last 20 years? He’s in the discussion but guys like David Akers, his contemporary Stephen Gostkowski, and now Justin Tucker have a case. If he were in a different sport like baseball, people might also wonder how a guy that made 12 total kicks over 50 yards before his 40th birthday made 12 such kicks at age 44 and 45. I do wonder how the end of his career will be viewed with the passage of time, and I think Vinatieri is likely to get in, but it won’t be without plenty of argument, and after the passage of a few years.
#7 Cam Newton
I’m just gonna go ahead and preemptively put Cam Newton on here. He’s been an Offensive Rookie of the Year, a League MVP, and appeared in the Super Bowl. He is a unique and unprecedented weapon when it comes to a quarterback who is built like a defensive end, who can run and pass. He’s already rushed for 54 career touchdowns. For perspective, that’s the most ever by a quarterback, already surpassing Otto Graham (44) and guys known as rushers like Steve Young (43), Steve McNair (37), Michael Vick (36), and Randall Cunningham (35). He has not turned 29 yet.
He’s also a lightning rod for opinions. Look, if Newton plays seven more years at a very high level, he’s going to be in without question. The issue is going to be if his body breaks down because of how much he carries the team and runs the ball. If he starts to suffer injuries that keep him out, and he doesn’t play into his mid-thirties, he’s going to be one of the biggest names on the ballot each year, and there will be plenty of T.O.-like outcry if he doesn’t get in.
#8 James Harrison
James Harrison is going to be on the ballot for a long time and may eventually get in, but he is another lightning rod. He didn’t really get to start in the NFL until he was 29. Then he went on a five-year run where he was one of the dominant defensive players in the league on some great Steelers teams. He’s not going to finish with 100 career sacks. By pro bowls and all-pro seasons, he’s right in line with some guys who are not in (Pat Swilling, Isiah Robertson, Gregg Lloyd) and some who got in, but not without plenty of arguments and debates and lengthy waits (Charles Haley, Andre Tippett, and Kevin Greene). Steelers Nation will be firmly behind him and he’ll have popular support, and will be a frequent point of bar disagreements.
#9 Matt Ryan
Do you think of Hall of Fame when you think of Matt Ryan? He won a league MVP in 2016. He reached a Super Bowl the same season. He was Offensive Rookie of the Year. He has made 4 pro bowls by age 32, but never in back to back seasons, as he has a weird even-numbered-year thing working. He’s won over 60% of his career starts and the Falcons have made the playoffs in 6 of 10 seasons he has been there.
If you just look at quarterbacks through the same age, he’s very much on a Hall of Fame path. Yet, I think he’s going to be right on that Boomer Esiason Hall of Very Good cutline unless he wins a Super Bowl (or another MVP award).
#10 Earl Thomas
Is Earl Thomas going to be a Hall of Famer? I think instinctually, many people will say yes. But then, when you go look at the safety position, you see a lot of guys who were the best safeties in the game for a 3-4 year period, many of whom were part of great teams, and are not in the Hall.
Here’s a list of guys who are not in the Hall of Fame currently who were selected as a first-team all-pro at least three times: Leroy Butler, Joey Browner, Deron Cherry, Nolan Cromwell, Donnie Shell, Cliff Harris, and Darren Woodson. All of those guys had stretches like Thomas in their 20’s, all of them played into their 30’s, but were no longer considered the top guys as age and injury took the toll. Kenny Easley would be on that list, too, but he finally made it last year. It took 30 years after retirement to be selected.
If Thomas’ best years are behind him (and safety is a more risky position than running back when it comes to career longevity), then he’s going to be in the middle of a lot of debates when it comes to the Hall, and in a backlog at the position.
Other Candidates Considered: Jamaal Charles (record-setting yards per carry, elite seasons but longevity will likely keep him out); Clay Matthews (elite linebacker in his prime but slowed down as he approached age 30); Odell Beckham, Jr. (if he continues with some top seasons but bounces to multiple teams, you know he is most likely to be the T.O. of this generation); Aqib Talib; and Darrelle Revis (should be in, but could see him being divisive and not having support in selection room early on).